TZUTC: 0000   
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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 100040   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 100040=20   
   ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-100245-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0016   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0640 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026   
      
   Areas affected...portions of eastern Texas...Louisiana...and   
   southern Mississippi   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20   
      
   Valid 100040Z - 100245Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm intensity is expected this   
   evening and tonight over portions of the Sabine and lower MS   
   Valleys. A mix of supercells and linear segments will likely support   
   a risk for damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes. One or more   
   watches are likely in the next hour or two.   
      
   DISCUSSION...As of 0130 UTC, regional radar and mesoanalysis showed   
   scattered convection ongoing within a very moist and broad warm   
   sector from east TX into LA and across southern MS. Over the last 2   
   hours, convection within this region has slowly intensified as a   
   positive-tilt upper trough over the southern Plains has moved   
   eastward. Continued ascent and convective development within the   
   warm sector appears likely this evening given robust moisture and   
   buoyancy (MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg LIX/LCH RAOBs) with little to no   
   inhibition remaining.   
      
   Overall forcing is still somewhat nebulous and driven primarily by   
   low-level warm advection. This suggests storm evolution is likely to   
   be slow until the upper trough moves closer. Initial storm evolution   
   is expected along low-level confluence structures and the cold front   
   over eastern TX. Deep-layer shear (50-60 kt) oriented largely   
   parallel to these features is favorable for storm organization, but   
   with a mixed convective mode of supercells and linear segments. This   
   will favor a risk for damaging gusts given strong mid and low-level   
   flow.   
      
   While initially somewhat weaker, low-level flow/shear should   
   increase this evening as large-scale ascent from the approaching   
   upper trough and nocturnal low-level jet intensify across LA and MS.   
   Peak SRH (0-500m) of 100-150 m2/s2 will support low-level rotation   
   and the potential for a couple tornadoes as well. This appears   
   especially likely along the diffuse warm front where weak pressure   
   falls are occurring and low-level winds are backed.   
      
   Observational trends and short-term model guidance suggest   
   convection will gradually increase in coverage and intensity this   
   evening. As storms mature a severe threat should evolve and   
   transition northeastward tonight. Given the potential for damaging   
   gusts and a couple tornadoes, one or more watches is likely needed   
   in the next hour or two.   
      
   ..Lyons/Gleason.. 01/10/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!4fppQQj7UVM-eWzc-BDHN1P9I-gYmpOlLAYm7QbS1VK5PfW7oNLHcoP7N9AHksK6ir_wA8BKh=   
   o0EobzC8xl8CWFoCZs$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...   
      
   LAT...LON   30409384 30789411 31389416 31939382 32509255 32269018   
               32078938 31848874 31378844 31028868 30509099 30479125   
               30369211 30369339 30409384=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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