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   ACUS11 KWNS 092146   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 092146=20   
   ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-092315-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0015   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0346 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Parts of the LA into southern/central MS and   
   southwest AL   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 092146Z - 092315Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...A gradual increase in the tornado threat is possible into   
   early evening. Damaging wind and isolated hail are also possible.   
   Watch issuance through the remainder of the afternoon appears   
   unlikely, but a Tornado Watch will likely be needed at some point   
   this evening.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon from   
   LA into southern MS, within a seasonably warm/moist and moderately   
   unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is strong region-wide, but   
   convection has largely remained disorganized thus far, likely due to   
   generally weak ascent and the presence of a warm nose around 700 mb   
   noted in 18Z soundings from LIX and LCH.=20   
      
   With time, ascent associated with an approaching mid/upper shortwave   
   trough may support increasing storm organization from late afternoon   
   into the evening. Low-level flow/shear (which has generally weakened   
   this afternoon) will also increase in response to the approaching   
   shortwave, though any more substantial strengthening may not occur   
   until later this evening.=20   
      
   The current expectation is for a gradually increasing threat of more   
   organized clusters and a few supercells from late afternoon into the   
   evening, accompanied by some tornado and wind-damage threat, and   
   potentially isolated hail. Watch issuance through the remainder of   
   the afternoon appears unlikely, but Tornado Watch issuance will   
   become increasingly likely with time into this evening, due to the   
   anticipated strengthening of the low-level wind profile.   
      
   ..Dean/Smith.. 01/09/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!6qLaBzmX5y8LpLPWPHZtNiqZOxcVgorE_spshjGaTlSDxemTIlrYmETfyBHCtWqyrHABSIvic=   
   HIgRGAW4-i1OSZ9a2k$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...   
      
   LAT...LON   31799353 32079086 32208966 32248896 32208842 31938785   
               31768778 30788879 29608986 29789201 29789252 29959338   
               31219355 31799353=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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