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   AWUS01 KWNH 092005   
   FFGMPD   
   ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-100100-   
      
   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0009   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   304 PM EST Fri Jan 09 2026   
      
   Areas affected...south-central LA into south-central MS and   
   western/central AL   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely   
      
   Valid 092003Z - 100100Z   
      
   SUMMARY...Relatively narrow axes (or a single axis) of heavy rain   
   appear likely to maintain an increased flash flood potential into   
   the early evening from south-central LA into south-central MS and   
   western/central AL. 2 to 4 inches and areas of flash flooding will   
   be likely within portions of this corridor with locally higher   
   rain totals possible.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from 1945Z showed a persistent axis of   
   moderate to heavy rain from near the southeastern LA/MS border   
   into south-central MS and western AL which has been in roughly the   
   same location over the past 3-4 hours. Embedded hourly rainfall   
   has been observed in the 1-2 inch range at times and roughly 2 to   
   4 inches have fallen from near Baton Rouge into south-central MS   
   as far east as Waynesboro, MS since early this morning. A   
   combination of rain-cooled outflow and a slightly elevated axis of   
   convergence located within 925-850 mb layer have helped to focus   
   these areas of heavy rain over the past few hours where MLCAPE has   
   increased into the 500-1500 J/kg range from the southern MS/AL   
   border toward Lake Pontchartrain (via SPC mesoanalysis data).   
   Additional rainfall was occurring farther north in AL along the   
   elevated convergence axis where 2 to 3 inches was reported over   
   the past 6 hours, but a lack of instability has tempered rainfall   
   rates across northern locations. Radar imagery also showed   
   additional thunderstorms building over the I-10 corridor of   
   south-central LA, rooted near the surface within weaker/more   
   subtle axes of near surface convergence.   
      
   RAP forecast guidance suggests an inflection point along the   
   convergence axis (currently over the south-central MS/AL border)   
   will advance northeastward in the short term while the axis of   
   convergence to its west lifts slightly north. Meanwhile, the WSW   
   to ENE oriented outflow boundary in place over south-central MS is   
   likely to continue to serve as a focus for additional thunderstorm   
   development. Therefore, expectations are for continued   
   thunderstorms over the region through early evening, initiating   
   along and just north of the surface outflow and farther north on   
   elevated convergence with training via mean movement off toward   
   the ENE. Embedded short term training  may also occur with the   
   thunderstorms moving northward through south-central LA.   
      
   Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, but localized hourly rainfall in   
   excess of 2 inches is expected through early evening from southern   
   portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley into western/central AL.   
   The better instability is forecast to remain situated west of the   
   MS/AL border but pockets of locally higher instability into   
   portions of AL may also support flash flooding to the east as   
   well. Given dry antecedent conditions leading up to this event,   
   flash flooding potential will be greatest over urban areas and   
   where heavy rain has fallen over the past 12 hours.   
      
   Otto   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!9m4qxItj-dnwomeDGXhQp86jHguqhmSXSAAR6bEQjaMBomi8lsV-t-Am1_0oAWUcpSxH=   
   eCihXcSKifpS29MX2Hrx8sk$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   33568684 33488628 33168594 32648596 32198649=20   
               31858711 31258872 30868957 30379076 30359177=20   
               30639220 31179203 31969105 32449012 32698924=20   
               33208778=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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