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   FOUS11 KWBC 091959   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   259 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026   
      
   Valid 00Z Sat Jan 10 2026 - 00Z Tue Jan 13 2026   
      
      
   ...Central/Southern Plains...   
   Day 1...   
      
   Closed low exiting the CO Plains this afternoon will continue to   
   weaken as it moves eastward. Snow will diminish in coverage after   
   00Z but some light accumulation is possible through Kansas and into   
   Missouri.   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   Shortwave exiting the Plains will combine with a stronger forming   
   closed mid-level low plunging southeastward out of south central   
   Canada tomorrow morning, favoring surface low development over   
   Lower Michigan. A deformation zone of snow will envelope the   
   northern Great Lakes with a focus for at least some brief heavy   
   snow beneath the developing TROWAL that sets up over the U.P. of   
   Michigan. The surface low is forecast to pull into Ontario Sunday   
   morning, gradually ending the synoptic snow for Michigan with a   
   short lake-enhanced/effect period of snow. On its heels will be   
   another Canadian shortwave Sunday evening through Monday morning   
   with only light snow of around an inch. WPC probabilities for at   
   least 4 inches of snow with the lead system this weekend are around   
   50% in the Porcupine and Huron Mountains in the U.P. and   
   northwestern Lower Michigan. Three-day totals could eclipse 8   
   inches in favored areas (30-50% chance).   
      
   Fracasso   
      
      
   ...Northeast & Central Appalachians...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   The same storm responsible for the snow over the northern Great   
   Lakes Saturday night into Sunday will also produce a hazardous   
   wintry mix across the interior Northeast and heavy snow in northern   
   New England. A strong >750kg/m/s IVT will direct copious amounts   
   of moisture northward Saturday into Saturday night along the   
   Northeast coastline. At the same time, a cold front will inject   
   just enough cold/dry air at the surface with Canadian high pressure   
   to the north creating a weak CAD signature over the Northeast.   
   This healthy 850-700mb WAA will support a classic overrunning setup   
   of >0C air aloft causing a mixture of sleet/freezing rain to   
   unfold beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing into Saturday   
   night/early Sunday morning. Guidance has trended weaker with the   
   primary low over southeast Canada Saturday night, and with a   
   developing secondary coastal low near southern New England, the   
   expectation is for sub- freezing surface temperatures to persist   
   longer. One potential issue for heavier snow in northern New   
   England is the potential for a 700-300mb dry slot that could sap   
   moisture in the DGZ aloft over northern NY and northern VT/NH.   
   Thus, the main hazard outside of far northern New England or Maine,   
   is expected to be associated with freezing rain.   
      
   Still, whether it is ice or snow, many of the interior mountain   
   ranges such as the Catskills, Berkshires, Greens, Adirondacks, and   
   Whites are favored to see the heaviest wintry precipitation   
   Saturday night and into Sunday. As the coastal low takes over on   
   Sunday, lake-effect snow showers are likely to continue down wind   
   of Lakes Erie and Ontario while northern Maine would be more likely   
   to see extended periods of moderate snowfall through Sunday night.   
   WPC probabilities indicate moderate chances (60-80%) for minor ice   
   accumulations over a tenth of an inch across the Berkshires,   
   Greens, Adirondacks, and Whites and have increased with this   
   forecast iteration. Low chances (10-20%) for ice greater than a   
   quarter of an inch in the Adirondacks and southern   
   Greens/Berkshires. Regarding snowfall, WPC probabilities for >4"   
   are moderate- (70-90%) over the northern Green/White Mountains and   
   northern Maine. Northern Maine has the best chances for witnessing   
   locally heavy snowfall with low chance probabilities (10-30%) for   
   snowfall totals >8". With lake enhanced snowfall possible in wake   
   of a cold frontal passage on Sunday, the Tug Hill and Chautauqua   
   Ridge are sporting moderate-to- high chances (50-80%) for localized   
   snowfall totals >4" through Sunday night.   
      
   Additionally, as strong height falls cross the Ohio Valley   
   Saturday night before impacting the central Appalachians and Mid-   
   Atlantic on Sunday, snow squalls and upslope-enhanced snowfall is   
   likely. A coating to an inch of snow is possible within isolated to   
   scattered snow squalls as they swing from the Ohio Valley into the   
   Mid-Atlantic, with more snow likely in the central Appalachians.   
   WPC probabilities for >4" are 20-50% across the Alleghenies of   
   western MD and WV.   
      
      
   Snell   
      
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
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