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   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 091947   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 091945   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0145 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026   
      
   Valid 092000Z - 101200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST   
   TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across southeast Texas   
   into the central Gulf states.  A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts,   
   and large hail are possible through tonight.   
      
   ...20Z Update...   
   A stronger storm has evolved out of activity in central Texas. This   
   activity is occurring along a buoyancy gradient along the surface   
   boundary. While storms will likely remain elevated, a strong to   
   severe storm or two may be capable of marginally severe hail. The   
   Marginal has been adjusted to account for this potential.   
   Additionally, the Slight risk has been moved slightly southward in   
   central Mississippi given persistent northerly winds and drying low   
   levels in northern portions of the state. See the previous forecast   
   for additional details.   
      
   ..Wendt.. 01/09/2026   
      
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026/   
      
   ...Southern LA northeastward into MS/AL this afternoon...   
   A southerly fetch of fully modified Gulf air (surface dewpoints near   
   70 deg F) within a weak but persistent warm-air advection regime   
   over the central Gulf Coast will probably yield a continuation of   
   isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon.  Some   
   breaks in the stratus will promote additional heating of the moist   
   and weakly unstable airmass.  Some weakening of low-level shear has   
   been observed this morning via the Jackson, MS and Hammond, LA   
   WSR-88D VADs, and this trend may continue through the mid afternoon   
   before strengthening later today and into tonight.  In the meantime,   
   an isolated threat for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado   
   may continue with a stronger storm or two.   
      
   ...TX/LA/MS/AL this afternoon into the overnight...   
   Visible-satellite imagery this morning shows an extensive   
   multi-layer shield of clouds across south-central TX northeastward   
   into western LA.  Ahead of a larger mid-level trough moving east   
   across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains, a couple of   
   minor disturbances embedded within strong southwesterly flow are   
   forecast to move northeastward from TX into the lower MS Valley.  In   
   the low levels, a quasi-stationary front will serve as the northwest   
   delimiter of the moist/unstable sector before gradually moving   
   southward across east TX into the Ark-La-Miss later tonight.  The   
   air mass southeast of the front will destabilize this afternoon,   
   leading to eventual scattered thunderstorms with MLCAPE of 1000-1500   
   J/kg.  This initial activity later this afternoon over TX into LA   
   will gradually shift eastward into LA/MS this evening and MS/AL   
   during the overnight.  Ample deep-layer shear will pose a risk a few   
   strong/severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail.  Towards   
   the late afternoon over east TX and western LA and especially   
   through the evening from southwest LA into central MS, 700-mb flow   
   (per EC model guidance) is forecast to intensify.  This   
   strengthening of the low to mid-level flow and enlarging of the   
   hodographs will probably coincide with the primary period of concern   
   for severe storms.  A few supercells capable of a tornado risk will   
   be the main hazard.  However, a threat for scattered damaging gusts   
   accompanying other organized storm structures and possibly a hail   
   threat will also continue into the overnight.   
      
   $$   
      
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