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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 091649   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 091649=20   
   ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-091845-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0013   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1049 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026   
      
   Areas affected...South-central/southeast LA into southern/central MS   
   and southwest AL   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20   
      
   Valid 091649Z - 091845Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...Some threat for locally damaging wind and/or a tornado may   
   continue through the late morning to early afternoon.   
      
   DISCUSSION...A storm cluster with occasional embedded rotating cells   
   is ongoing this morning near the southern MS/AL border. This cluster   
   is occurring within the MLCAPE gradient, along the eastern periphery   
   of deeper low-level moisture that is being advected in from the   
   southwest. As the buoyancy plume gradually expands eastward, this   
   cluster may persist though at least late morning. While there has   
   been some recent weakening of low-level flow, the KHDC and KMOB VWPs   
   continue to depict low-level hodograph enlargement, and some threat   
   for a brief tornado and/or locally damaging wind may continue for as   
   long as this cluster persists.=20   
      
   Farther west, some increase in convection has been noted across   
   south-central/southeast LA, within a moist and uncapped environment.   
   While large-scale ascent will remain relatively subtle in the short   
   term, modest low-level warm advection may continue to support storm   
   development and maturation in this area, and also potentially   
   farther north into parts of central MS, near the northern periphery   
   of deeper low-level moisture. While there may be some weakening and   
   veering of low-level flow with time in this area, strong deep-layer   
   shear will support organized storms, including some supercell   
   potential.=20   
      
   Some threat for a tornado, locally damaging wind, and possibly   
   isolated hail could accompany any organized storms within the   
   broader warm sector into early afternoon, though short-term coverage   
   is uncertain and may remain isolated until a more substantial   
   increase in severe potential later this afternoon into the evening.   
      
   ..Dean/Smith.. 01/09/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!6ymKgUeTz_OOWtp00FUEMW_dCg3kfVqGgLTIGyOmDeZ4wxio0ShdlvcLCK0zpEOXGsvlvIOLg=   
   U4GCkY9bo8qrNO8qYo$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...   
      
   LAT...LON   32579028 32828951 32868861 32728798 32578751 32378736   
               31488772 31188790 30648839 30459057 30289109 30099157   
               30119216 30459226 30989184 32579028=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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