TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168397.weather@1:2320/105 2dc8f560   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 091632   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 091630   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1030 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026   
      
   Valid 091630Z - 101200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST   
   TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across southeast Texas   
   into the central Gulf states.  A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts,   
   and large hail are possible through tonight.   
      
   ...Southern LA northeastward into MS/AL this afternoon...   
   A southerly fetch of fully modified Gulf air (surface dewpoints near   
   70 deg F) within a weak but persistent warm-air advection regime   
   over the central Gulf Coast will probably yield a continuation of   
   isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon.  Some   
   breaks in the stratus will promote additional heating of the moist   
   and weakly unstable airmass.  Some weakening of low-level shear has   
   been observed this morning via the Jackson, MS and Hammond, LA   
   WSR-88D VADs, and this trend may continue through the mid afternoon   
   before strengthening later today and into tonight.  In the meantime,   
   an isolated threat for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado   
   may continue with a stronger storm or two.   
      
   ...TX/LA/MS/AL this afternoon into the overnight...   
   Visible-satellite imagery this morning shows an extensive   
   multi-layer shield of clouds across south-central TX northeastward   
   into western LA.  Ahead of a larger mid-level trough moving east   
   across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains, a couple of   
   minor disturbances embedded within strong southwesterly flow are   
   forecast to move northeastward from TX into the lower MS Valley.  In   
   the low levels, a quasi-stationary front will serve as the northwest   
   delimiter of the moist/unstable sector before gradually moving   
   southward across east TX into the Ark-La-Miss later tonight.  The   
   air mass southeast of the front will destabilize this afternoon,   
   leading to eventual scattered thunderstorms with MLCAPE of 1000-1500   
   J/kg.  This initial activity later this afternoon over TX into LA   
   will gradually shift eastward into LA/MS this evening and MS/AL   
   during the overnight.  Ample deep-layer shear will pose a risk a few   
   strong/severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail.  Towards   
   the late afternoon over east TX and western LA and especially   
   through the evening from southwest LA into central MS, 700-mb flow   
   (per EC model guidance) is forecast to intensify.  This   
   strengthening of the low to mid-level flow and enlarging of the   
   hodographs will probably coincide with the primary period of concern   
   for severe storms.  A few supercells capable of a tornado risk will   
   be the main hazard.  However, a threat for scattered damaging gusts   
   accompanying other organized storm structures and possibly a hail   
   threat will also continue into the overnight.   
      
   ..Smith/Halbert.. 01/09/2026   
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 120 16/0 18/0 19/10 37 105/81 106/201 116/116 123/0   
   SEEN-BY: 123/25 126 130 180 755 3001 3002 4040 128/187 129/14 134/100   
   SEEN-BY: 135/115 142/104 153/143 148 149 151 757 7715 154/10 110 203/0   
   SEEN-BY: 218/700 840 221/1 6 360 222/2 226/30 227/114 229/110 134   
   SEEN-BY: 229/206 275 300 307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 240/5832   
   SEEN-BY: 250/1 266/512 275/1000 280/5003 291/111 301/1 320/119 219   
   SEEN-BY: 320/319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364 341/66 342/200 396/45   
   SEEN-BY: 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 1321 902/26 2320/0 105 304   
   SEEN-BY: 3634/0 12 27 57 58 60 61 119 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 3634/12 153/757 221/6 1 320/219 229/426