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   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   AWUS01 KWNH 091516   
   FFGMPD   
   ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-092000-   
      
   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0008   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1015 AM EST Fri Jan 09 2026   
      
   Areas affected...southeastern LA, southern MS, western AL   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely   
      
   Valid 091514Z - 092000Z   
      
   SUMMARY...Peak rain rates of 2 to 3 in/hr are expected to produce   
   at least Isolated flash flooding from northern portions of   
   southeastern LA into southern MS and parts of western AL through   
   20Z. 6-hr rainfall of 3 to 5 inches will be possible, through   
   these higher end totals should remain rather isolated should they   
   materialize.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from 15Z showed a axis of heavy rain   
   oriented ENE from the LA/MS border across the I-55 corridor into   
   south-central MS and portions of western AL. This axis was located   
   within an area of pre-frontal low level convergence, augmented by   
   rain-cooled outflow that extended from near Baton Rouge, LA to   
   Hattiesburg, MS to Thomasville, AL. 925 mb winds of 25-35 kt were   
   observed over southeastern LA into southern MS, converging along   
   this axis which was oriented parallel to the mean steering flow,   
   supporting training. Hourly rainfall near and just over 2 inches   
   has been observed near the LA/MS border within the past 2 hours   
   where MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and PWATs of 1.7 to 1.8 inches were   
   representative of the environment, reported on the 12Z soundings   
   from LIX and JAN.   
      
   Short term guidance from the RAP shows similar low level flow   
   continuing over the next few hours with the establishing cold pool   
   likely serving as a focus for renewed convective development   
   through 18Z to 19Z from the LA/MS border into southern MS. ENE   
   steering flow is likely to support cells moving downstream into   
   western AL while some upstream development occurs back to the WSW.   
   The environment is capable of supporting hourly rainfall in the   
   2-3 inch range, although 1 to 2 inches per hour will be more   
   common. Localized potential for 3 to 5 inches over the next 6   
   hours will exist with at least localized flash flooding appearing   
   likely, especially within any urban areas and as high rain rates   
   overcome dry antecedent conditions.   
      
   Otto   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!_TyiPQgtr4G0Ii50gtuvjxeex8vVdO5evYOP54YZtWf02QDLtAIGPEdd-TkMEu8RjjIG=   
   d01F8d6HGazeOuastO5EijM$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   32848772 32518711 31988718 31498776 30978897=20   
               30569019 30009159 30399210 31319161 32108995=20   
               32618877=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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