TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168388.weather@1:2320/105 2dc8b62e   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 091202   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 091201   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0601 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026   
      
   Valid 091300Z - 101200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST   
   TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Texas into the   
   central Gulf states.   
      
   ...MS/AL This morning...   
   Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across   
   parts of MS.  This activity is in a moist surface air mass with   
   dewpoints in the mid 60s, and MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg.  VAD   
   profiles suggest sufficient low-level shear for some concern for a   
   tornado or two this morning as activity tracks northeastward into   
   western AL.  However, model forecast soundings suggest a warm layer   
   in the 600-700mb layer that is likely limiting updraft strength and   
   the overall severe risk.   
      
   ...TX/LA This Afternoon...   
   Strong, broad southwesterly flow aloft will be present across much   
   of the southeastern United States today, with several small   
   perturbations embedded within the flow.  A quasi-stationary front is   
   currently positioned from south TX into southern AR.  The air mass   
   southeast of the front will destabilize this afternoon, leading to   
   scattered thunderstorm development.  MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and   
   sufficient deep-layer shear will pose a risk a few strong/severe   
   storms capable of damaging winds and hail.   
      
   ...LA/MS This Afternoon/Evening...   
   By late afternoon, ample daytime heating/destabilization will lead   
   to scattered thunderstorms over LA, spreading northeastward into MS.   
   Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but slowly strengthening   
   low-level winds and shear will pose a risk of a few severe storms   
   capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.   
      
   ...Southern MS/AL Overnight...   
   The consensus of CAM solutions suggest that storms will become   
   focused along a surface baroclinic zone late tonight from southeast   
   MS into southern AL.  During this period, most models suggest   
   significant strengthening of the southerly low-level jet, with   
   forecast hodographs becoming increasingly favorable for supercells   
   and a few tornadoes - despite marginal thermodynamic support.   
      
   ..Hart/Kerr.. 01/09/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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