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   MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-091501-   
      
   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0007   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   412 AM EST Fri Jan 09 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Central Mississippi...Eastern and Northeastern   
   Louisiana...   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 090911Z - 091501Z   
      
   SUMMARY...Flattening steering flow to support segmented training   
   corridors across the Lower Mississippi River Valley.=20   
   Strengthening convergence and modestly unstable and seasonably   
   moist air should support rain rates to 1.75" and localized streaks   
   of 2-4" in 1-3hrs.  Suggesting localized flash flooding is   
   possible this morning to start a longer day of repeat   
   thunderstorms.   
      
   DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows mature/decaying shortwave   
   rapidly elongating and sliding northeast through the central Great   
   Lakes with a well defined broadly anticyclonically curved   
   subtropical jet streak across Texas through KY/TN with a stronger   
   base of the northern stream synoptic trough well upstream emerging   
   into the southern High Plains.   The strong flow and upper-level   
   dynamic support has resulted in well above normal moisture flux   
   across the Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes; CIRA LPW   
   denotes core of higher moisture/theta-E air over the West Gulf is   
   advancing into the entrance of the eastern US atmospheric river   
   stream.  Surface to 850mb values are nearing 1" and is noted with   
   surface Tds in the upper 60s to even spots of 70 across the Lower   
   MS Valley.=20   
      
   The overall orientation of the upper-level flow is supporting a   
   pre-frontal confluence zone across E LA at this time, providing   
   sufficient deep layer convergence to tap the weakly unstable air.   
   MLCAPEs are analyzed from 500-1000 J/kg through the Sabine River   
   Valley into the Delta Region of SE AR and W MS. Flux convergence   
   of 30-35kts at about 30 degrees of convergence overlaps with the   
   core of the moisture axis with TPW near 1.7".  As such, RADAR   
   denotes a few clusters of thunderstorms developing across NE LA as   
   well as further north across NE LA into W MS, the latter deeper   
   into the more ideal unidirectional flow and may support some   
   training elements as the overall convective development expands   
   and intensifies over the next few hours.  The strong moisture flux   
   convergence mainly below 700mb will support rates of 1.75"; and   
   while the forward speeds will limit any specific core, the   
   upstream divergence aloft and strength of low level flow   
   convergence will support back-building and redevelopment upstream   
   through central LA throughout the morning.   
      
   Localized storm outflows may be the key to establishing the most   
   ideal training profiles, but even 1-2 hours of these rates could   
   support 2-3" totals and locally higher values to 4" would then   
   begin to exceed the high (3"/3hrs) FFG values in the area.=20   
   00z/06z HREF Probability of 3"/3hrs peak around 30% in SW to   
   central MS. Still even with dormant ground conditions, these   
   rates/totals will have the greatest potential for flash   
   flooding/rapid inundation conditions where intersecting urban   
   centers. In any case, these cells will saturate the upper soil   
   profiles prior to further convective activity expected throughout   
   the day and evening.  As such, flash flooding is only considered   
   possible and limited to widely scattered in coverage through the   
   early morning period.=20=20=20=20   
      
   Gallina   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!9acKgA_eVUQUbWukkTDJ3cwSbuwKek4CYWoR60Ef7vNo7XSoV4CCLFqlziyioqp90ODj=   
   KtIhNIYw04qxDKJ-RKVXHog$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MEG...SHV...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   34138908 34058839 33498829 32868864 32288915=20   
               31568980 30709050 30919161 30929254 31469279=20   
               32169248 33289103 33719020=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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