TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168384.weather@1:2320/105 2dc881e2   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   FOUS11 KWBC 090819   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   319 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026   
      
   Valid 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026   
      
      
   ...Upper Midwest & Upper Great Lakes...   
   Day 1...   
      
   A swath of heavy/wet snow is ongoing along the western flank of a   
   storm system racing northeast through the Great Lakes. Snow bands   
   co-located beneath a classic 250mb jet coupling setup is   
   maximizing divergence atop the atmosphere at the same time   
   850-700mb FGEN support intense vertical velocities into a well   
   saturated DGZ. Boundary layer temperatures are marginally cold,   
   relaying heavily on the robust vertical velocities aloft and heavy   
   snowfall rates to keep the depth of the atmospheric column below   
   freezing. WPC's HREF Snowband Probability Tracker show the   
   potential for 1"/hr snowfall rates early this morning over   
   northern WI and the central MI U.P. that includes the Huron   
   Mountains. The latest forecast calls for 1-3" of snow over north-   
   central WI and into the heart of MI's U.P.. The Huron Mountains   
   have the best chances to see 4-6" of snowfall with localized totals   
   over 6" possible. WPC's WSSI shows largely Minor Impacts in these   
   areas, although localized Moderate Impacts (hazardous travel   
   conditions) are forecast around Marquette this morning. Snow tapers   
   off by midday as the storm races into southeast Canada.   
      
      
   ...Central/Southern Rockies & Adjacent High Plains...   
   Day 1...   
      
   A vigorous upper level trough over the Four Corners region will   
   close off into a 500mb low this morning. This system will escort a   
   plume of Pacific moisture into the Rockies and central High   
   Plains. Subsequent PVA aloft and favorable jet streak dynamics will   
   work in tandem with easterly upsloping low-level winds to produce   
   heavy snow from the Palmer Divide and Sangre De Cristo to the Raton   
   Mesa and High Plains.   
      
   A closed 700mb low will develop over northern NM that gives rise   
   to a surface low forming in lee of the Sangre De Cristo mountains.   
   Snow levels will quickly fall below 5000ft by Friday morning, then   
   as the FGEN banding ensues over southwest KS, the OK Panhandle, and   
   the northern most counties of the TX Panhandle, snow levels will   
   fall to as low as 2,000ft during the day. Low-level easterly winds   
   over the central High Plains favors upslope flow into southern CO   
   and northern NM peaking early this morning as the 700mb low tracks   
   just south of Raton Pass. Where the best FGEN forcing sets up and   
   the strength of the 700mb low will be vital in where the heaviest   
   snowfall occurs and how far east away from the Raton Mesa and Front   
   Range the band of heavy snow can advance. Beneath the 700mb FGEN,   
   >1"/hr snowfall rates are expected. The latest HREF and WPC   
   Snowband Probability Tracker depicts this well with 1"/hr snowfall   
   rates possible anywhere between the Sangre De Cristo and Raton Mesa   
   to the TX/OK Panhandles and southwest KS. As the 700mb low moves   
   northeast Friday afternoon, it will weaken and open up into a   
   progressive 500mb shortwave, resulting in frontolysis over the High   
   Plains that diminishes precipitation rates and weakens dynamic   
   cooling aloft.   
      
   Recent 12-24 hour trends have been snowier in the High Plains as   
   far east as southwest KS thanks to the 700mb low remaining in tact   
   longer as it tracks east. The latest snowfall forecast calls for   
   anywhere from 6-12" of snow from the Front Range as far north as   
   Pikes Peak on south along the Sangre De Cristo and into Raton Mesa.   
   Given the recent trends for heavier snowfall protruding as far east   
   as southwest KS, snowfall totals of 4-8" (localized totals >8")   
   are likely in southeast CO, southwest KS, the OK Panhandle, and the   
   far northwest reaches of the TX Panhandle. The WSSI is showing a   
   larger swath of Moderate Impacts in these aforementioned areas   
   with localized Major Impacts highlighted along the Raton Mesa and   
   very close to I-25's Raton Pass.   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes into the Northeast...   
   Days 2-3...   
      
   The shortwave trough responsible for the heavy snow in the the   
   southern and central Rockies/High Plains tracks eastward into the   
   MS Valley Saturday night. Farther north, a closed 500mb low in   
   southern Canada plunges into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. As   
   low pressure deepens over Lake Huron Saturday night, a deformation   
   zone of snow will envelope the northern Great Lakes. The focus for   
   heavy snow will be beneath the developing TROWAL that looks to   
   setup over the U.P. of Michigan. Over the past 24 hours, guidance   
   has trended more progressive with the storm system and its   
   associated TROWAL, which has continued the trend of gradually   
   decreasing snowfall totals. Latest WPC probabilities still show   
   moderate to high chances (50-75%) for snowfall amounts >4" in the   
   Porcupine and Huron Mountains of Michigan's U.P., as well as the   
   norther tier of Michigan's L.P.. Most odds for >6" of snowfall   
   remain in the 30-50% range, but the Huron Mountains and the tip of   
   Michigan's Mitten would be most favored for localized snowfall   
   totals over 8" given additional lake-enhanced snowfall there.   
      
   The same storm responsible for the snow over the northern Great   
   Lakes Saturday night into Sunday will also produce a hazardous   
   wintry mix across the interior Northeast and heavy snow in northern   
   New England. A strong >750kg/m/s IVT will direct copious amounts   
   of moisture northward Saturday into Saturday night. At the same   
   time, a cold front will inject just enough cold/dry air at the   
   surface with Canadian high pressure to the north creating a weak   
   CAD signature over the Northeast. This healthy 850-700mb WAA will   
   support a classic overrunning setup of >0C air aloft causing a   
   mixture of sleet/freezing rain to unfold beginning Saturday   
   afternoon and continuing into Saturday night/early Sunday morning.   
   Guidance has trended weaker with the primary low over southeast   
   Canada Saturday night, and with a developing secondary coastal low   
   near southern New England, the expectation is for sub-freezing   
   surface temperatures to persist longer. One potential issue for   
   snow in northern New England is the potential for a 700-300mb dry   
   slot that could sap moisture in the DGZ aloft over northern NY and   
   northern VT/NH.   
      
   Still, whether it is ice or snow, many of the interior mountain   
   ranges such as the Catskills, Berkshires, Greens, Adirondacks, and   
   Whites are favored to see the heaviest wintry precipitation Saturday   
   night and into Sunday. As the coastal low takes over on Sunday,   
   lake-effect snow showers are likely to continue down wind of Lakes   
   Erie and Ontario while northern Maine would be more likely to see   
   periods of heavy snow. WPC probabilities indicate moderate chances   
   (40-70%) for minor ice accumulations over one- hundreth of an inch   
   across the Berkshires, Greens, Adirondacks, and Whites, with low   
   chances (10-30%) for ice greater than a tenth of an inch in the   
   Adirondacks. Regarding snowfall, WPC probabilities for >4" are   
   moderate (40-70%) over the White Mountains and northern Maine.   
   Northern Maine has the best chances for witnessing locally heavy   
   snowfall with low chance probabilities (10-30%) for snowfall totals   
   >8". With lake enhanced snowfall possible in wake of a cold   
   frontal passage on Sunday, the Tug Hill and Chautauqua Ridge are   
   sporting moderate-to-high chances (50-80%) for localized snowfall   
   totals >4" through Sunday night.   
      
      
   Mullinax   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 16/0 19/37 80/1 103/705 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10   
   SEEN-BY: 120/302 123/130 128/187 129/14 142/104 153/7715 154/10 30   
   SEEN-BY: 154/50 110 700 203/0 218/700 220/10 20 30 90 221/1 6 226/18   
   SEEN-BY: 226/30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134 206 275 300 307 317 400   
   SEEN-BY: 229/426 428 470 664 700 705 240/1120 5832 266/512 280/5003   
   SEEN-BY: 291/111 301/1 113 320/119 219 319 2119 322/757 762 326/101   
   SEEN-BY: 335/364 341/66 342/200 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848   
   SEEN-BY: 902/26 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 1042 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 301/1 221/1 320/219 229/426