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   ACUS01 KWNS 090546   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 090545   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1145 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026   
      
   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST   
   TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Texas into the   
   central Gulf states.   
      
   ...Southeast Texas to Central Gulf States...   
      
   Midlevel speed max is forecast to translate through the base of the   
   Four Corners trough into southeast NM at the start of the period   
   before advancing into central OK by early evening. Subsequently,   
   this feature will eject into southeast MO by 10/12z in response to a   
   northern stream trough digging into the upper MS Valley overnight.   
      
   Late this evening, surface front had progressed to a position from   
   western IL-northern AR-southern OK. This boundary should continue   
   sagging south, and 00z model guidance suggests a weak surface wave   
   will develop along the trailing boundary over south-central TX by   
   early afternoon. Some deepening should occur as a weak surface low   
   advances across northern LA into MS late in the period. Early in the   
   day the primary focus for convection will be along the cold front   
   across the lower OH/TN Valley region into the lower MS Valley,   
   primarily driven by low-level warm advection beneath a modest LLJ.   
   While this early-day convection may pose some risk for damaging   
   gusts and perhaps a tornado, the primary concern will occur later in   
   the day as the secondary speed max ejects across the southern Plains   
   toward southern MO.   
      
   Current thinking is elevated thunderstorms should develop ahead of   
   the ejecting speed max/short wave by 18z across south central TX.   
   This initial activity will likely be elevated, but as storms advance   
   downstream surface-based parcels will have negligible inhibition   
   near the lower Sabine River Valley. Hail/wind will be the primary   
   concern early with supercells. During the evening a marked increase   
   in the LLJ is expected across the lower MS Valley into northern AL   
   overnight. As convection advances east, stronger low-level shear   
   will favor some risk for tornadoes. While supercells are expected, a   
   considerable amount of convection is expected along the synoptic   
   warm front, and this should limit northward extent of higher   
   instability air mass.   
      
   At this time it does not appear necessary to increase severe   
   probabilities across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf   
   states, primarily due to the short wave ejecting well north of the   
   higher-instability air mass.   
      
   ..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/09/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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