TZUTC: 0000   
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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 090150   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 090150=20   
   INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-090245-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0011   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0750 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026   
      
   Areas affected...portions of eastern Illinois into western Indiana   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 090150Z - 090245Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...A narrow, low-topped, broken line of storms may pose an   
   isolated threat for damaging gusts and a brief tornado. A WW is   
   unlikely, though trends will continue to be monitored.   
      
   DISCUSSION...As of 0145 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery   
   showed low-topped convection within a broad warm advection band was   
   slowly intensifying over portions of IL/MO. Cool mid-level   
   temperatures from the upper trough deepening over the Midwest have   
   steadily overspread a narrow plume of meager surface moisture   
   (dewpoints in the 50s and low 60s F). Limited buoyancy (MUCAPE ~ 500   
   J/kg) has so far prevented much storm organization or lightning.   
   However, continued albeit weak destabilization and moistening could   
   allow for a few stronger updrafts to briefly organize given very   
   strong kinematic fields. A linear storm mode is most probable, but   
   breaks in the line, or semi-discrete cells farther south could   
   support some transient supercellular structures. Given this, and   
   strong flow through much of the lower troposphere, (1-3km AGL winds   
   40-60 kt) isolated damaging gusts may occur. A brief tornado is also   
   possible given very large SRH (0-1km 400-600 m2/s2).   
      
   The primary uncertainty for a locally greater severe threat remains   
   the meager CAPE and strong surface stability. This is especially   
   apparent farther north over northeast IL and northwest IN where   
   temperatures remain in the low to mid 50s F. Short-term model   
   guidance and observation trends suggest a relatively greater threat   
   for strong gusts may materialize over southern portions of IL where   
   instability is greater. Still, given the kinematic fields, at least   
   isolated severe potential will continue to be monitored over the   
   region.   
      
   ..Lyons/Gleason.. 01/09/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!9pEMCcsTpyXYUX6SIEBqiUXvCeg7KuX_SvKirbwGyNfH7-7GZV9LSEV6Sbt9Tib5K9ndPZQ32=   
   guSJ5VENWpFqxcw4pg$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...   
      
   LAT...LON   38509038 39639024 40828917 41368853 41508775 41428697   
               41338675 40818655 40238689 39028762 38008862 37908961   
               38509038=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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