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   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS11 KWNS 082115   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 082114=20   
   MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-082315-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0010   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0314 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Northern Arkansas into eastern Missouri and   
   southwest Illinois   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 082114Z - 082315Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...A strong/severe thunderstorm or two will be possible   
   through late afternoon and early evening across parts of northern   
   Arkansas into eastern Missouri and far southwest Illinois. Storm   
   coverage is expected to be sufficiently limited to preclude watch   
   issuance, but trends will be monitored.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows gradual vertical development   
   of cumulus along a trailing surface trough from southwest MO into   
   western AR. So far, this activity has been too shallow/weak to   
   produce lightning - likely owing to a combination of very modest   
   buoyancy profiles, lingering inhibition near 750 mb (evidenced by   
   residual low/mid-level stratus to the east and sampled by the 18z   
   LZK sounding), and decreasing forcing for ascent as the primary   
   synoptic wave lifts to the north. However, latest mesoanalysis   
   depicts a plume of low-level theta-e advection immediately   
   downstream of this shallow convective band. Within this regime   
   dewpoints have been very slowly increasing into the low/mid 60s with   
   cloud breaks in northern AR supporting pockets of modest heating   
   (temperatures up to around 70 F). As such, the downstream   
   thermodynamic environment is slowly evolving to become more   
   supportive of deep convection.=20   
      
   Strong low-level shear within the lowest few kilometers sampled by   
   the 18z LZK sounding and recent KLZK VWP observations suggest that   
   organized convection, including supercells, are possible if   
   convection can become sufficiently deep to realize the full   
   kinematic profile. Confidence in this potential remains limited,   
   however, due to the aforementioned limitations to deep convection.   
   Recent deterministic CAM guidance also shows limited confidence with   
   most solutions depicting weak/transient UH/updraft signals across   
   the region while a few - notably the more aggressive RRFS - depict   
   the potential for more robust, albeit very isolated, convection.   
   While watch issuance is not currently anticipated, trends will   
   continue to be monitored given the very favorable kinematic   
   environment.   
      
   ..Moore/Smith.. 01/08/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!7OWIskMirRgx7t1al-2c4jTkEiGXT6gT_Y4rp7yCobPQP84SHpPSYnZINn0hD3TG11bkXAVJ9=   
   qMepU_PJIMtj9B-FVY$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...   
      
   LAT...LON   35899372 38749198 39069180 39259153 39279025 39208994   
               38948984 38068968 37798971 37628990 35769144 35559178   
               35539218 35509362 35609378 35899372=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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