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   FOUS11 KWBC 082020   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   320 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026   
      
   Valid 00Z Fri Jan 09 2026 - 00Z Mon Jan 12 2026   
      
      
   ...Upper Midwest & Upper Great Lakes...   
   Day 1...   
      
   A storm system will track from KS this afternoon on north and east   
   into IA by this evening, then over northern MI by Friday morning   
   producing a narrow, but potentially heavy stripe of snowfall just   
   to it's northwest. Dynamic cooling beneath a coupling jet-streaks   
   structure is a plausible scenario from as far south and west as   
   eastern NE to as far north as the MI U.P.. Given the rapid   
   progression of the QPF shield, accumulating snow over 1-2" will be   
   tough for areas south and west of northern WI. However, over   
   northern WI and the MI U.P., the timing of the changeover to snow   
   and the 700 mb low track coincides with the middle of the night,   
   allowing for a better chance for snowfall accumulations. Snowfall   
   rates of 1-2"/hr over northern WI and the MI U.P. are also becoming   
   more likely per the 12z HREF, which will support greater   
   confidence in heavy snowfall accumulations over 4". Snowfall rates   
   and associated reduced visibilities are the expected hazards, along   
   with the potential for slippery overnight travel. Marquette's area   
   and the Huron Mts in particular will have better chances for heavy   
   accumulating snow as onshore, lake- enhanced snowfall ensues. Snow   
   tapers off Friday morning as the storm races north into Ontario.   
   WPC probabilities shows moderate chances (40-80%) for snowfall   
   totals >6" in MI's Huron Mountains into northern WI. There is also   
   the potential for light ice accumulations from northern IA and   
   southern MN to northern WI and the western MI U.P. during the onset   
   of the event with WPC probabilities showing moderate chances   
   (30-50%) for ice accumulations over one-hundreth of an inch. Ice   
   accumulation could occur near the evening rush hour in southern MN   
   and central WI.   
      
   ...Central/Southern Rockies & Adjacent High Plains...   
   Day 1...   
      
   Following an initial shortwave ejecting into the Plains this   
   afternoon, a second and more vigorous upper level shortwave over   
   the Great Basin heads east for the Four Corners region tonight.   
   This system will bring with it not only additional Pacific moisture   
   but height falls, better PVA, and jet streak dynamics aloft.   
      
   As enhanced Q-vector convergence heads for the Front Range of the   
   Rockies and the High Plains this evening, a closed 700mb low will   
   develop over northern NM that gives rise to a surface low forming   
   in lee of the Sangre De Cristo mountains. Snow levels will quickly   
   fall below 5000ft by Friday morning. Meanwhile, low-level easterly   
   winds over the central High Plains fosters upslope flow into   
   southern CO and northern NM peaking Friday morning as the 700mb low   
   tracks just south of Raton Pass. There remains some latitudinal   
   disagreement on the placement of the best 700mb FGEN as the 700mb   
   low emerges into northeast NM and tracks towards the OK/TX   
   Panhandles. Where the best FGEN forcing sets up and the strength of   
   the 700mb low will be vital in where the heaviest snowfall occurs   
   and how far east away from the Raton Mesa and Front Range the band   
   of heavy snow can advance. Beneath the 700mb FGEN, >1"/hr snowfall   
   rates are expected. The 12z HREF and WPC Snowband Probability   
   Tracker depicts this well with 1"/hr snowfall rates possible   
   anywhere between southwest KS to the northern TX Panhandle. As the   
   700mb low moves northeast Friday afternoon, it will weaken and open   
   up into a progressive 500mb shortwave, resulting in frontolysis   
   over the High Plains that reduces precipitation rates and weakens   
   dynamic cooling aloft.   
      
   At this time, WPC probabilities are highlighting the usual   
   suspects (Palmer Divide, Front Range, Raton Mesa) as having   
   moderate-to- high chances (>70%) for snowfall totals >4". I-25 at   
   Raton Pass sports moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for snowfall   
   totals >6". Localized snowfall totals >8" along the peaks of the   
   Sangre De Cristo and Raton Mesa are possible. Farther east, WPC   
   probabilities show high chances (60-90%) for snowfall totals >4" in   
   southeast CO, northeast NM, the far western OK Panhandle, and the   
   northwest tip of the TX Panhandle. The WSSI shows widespread Minor   
   Impacts (winter driving conditions; use caution when driving) for   
   much of the central High Plains with localized Moderate Impacts   
   possible over northeast NM.   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes into the Northeast...   
   Days 2-3...   
      
   By Saturday night, the shortwave trough responsible for the heavy   
   snow in the the southern and central Rockies/High Plains tracks   
   eastward into the MS Valley. As this occurs, a deep, closed, 500mb   
   low in southern Canada plunges into the Upper Midwest and Great   
   Lakes. The latest guidance continues its recent trends of keeping   
   the much stronger northern stream disturbance separated just enough   
   to shear apart the southern shortwave instead of phasing together   
   with it. Given the overall system becoming more progressive due to   
   reduced phasing and less interaction between the better northern   
   stream dynamics and enhanced southern stream moisture, snow amounts   
   across eastern WI and northern MI have come down quite a bit with   
   this package. The latest WPC probabilities still show moderate to   
   high chances (50-75%) for snowfall amounts >4" across portions of   
   northern Michigan, but odds for >6" are now only 30-50%. The one   
   exception to that is across a small portion of the U.P. of Michigan   
   where some additional lake enhancement will give higher odds   
   (50-70%) of >6".   
      
   The same storm responsible for the snow over the northern Great   
   Lakes Saturday night into Sunday will also produce a hazardous   
   wintry mix across the northern Appalachians into northern New   
   England. The Northeast will lay ahead of a strong >750kg/m/s IVT   
   that will direct copious amounts of moisture northward Saturday   
   into Saturday night. At the same time, a cold front will provide   
   just enough cold/dry air at the surface with Canadian high pressure   
   to the north creating a weak CAD signature over the Northeast.   
   This healthy 850-700mb WAA will support a classic overrunning setup   
   of >0C air aloft causing a mixture of sleet/freezing rain to   
   unfold beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing into Saturday   
   night/early Sunday morning. Precipitation is looking more likely to   
   start out as snow farther north in northern New England Saturday   
   night, with the potential to stay all snow for a longer period of   
   time. This is due to secondary coastal development just south of   
   Long Island and Cape Cod, which may help to keep sub-freezing   
   surface temperatures entrenched. How long this colder air stays   
   locked in will go a long way in determining snow amounts there, and   
   if snow will eventually change to a wintry mix. Still, the greater   
   concern for frozen precipitation, whether it be freezing rain or   
   snow, is for many of the interior mountain ranges such as the   
   Catskills, Berkshires, Greens, Adirondacks, and Whites where   
   surface temperatures have better odds of staying sub-freezing   
   Saturday night and into Sunday morning. Once the secondary surface   
   low pressure takes over Sunday afternoon, most places across the   
   Northeast will end as snow as a strong cold frontal passage ushers   
   in a much colder air mass in its wake. Some of this snow will have   
   the potential to be moderate to heavy across parts of Maine,   
   pending additional coastal development.   
      
   The latest WPC probabilities indicate moderate chances (40-70%)   
   for minor ice accumulations over one-hundreth of an inch across the   
   Berkshires, Greens, Adirondacks, and Whites, with low chances   
   (10-30%) for ice greater than a tenth of an inch. In terms of snow,   
   WPC probabilities for >4" are moderate (40-70%) from the northern   
   Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites into northern Maine, with low   
   chances (10-30%) for 6 inches or more through Sunday evening.   
      
      
   Snell/Miller/Mullinax   
      
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
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