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   ACUS01 KWNS 081934   
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   SPC AC 081932   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0132 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026   
      
   Valid 082000Z - 091200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE MISSOURI...MISSISSIPPI...AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   An isolated risk for damaging gusts and possibly a tornado will   
   continue tonight from the Ozark Plateau eastward into the low/mid   
   Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys.   
      
   ...20z Update...   
   The Slight Risk across eastern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas,   
   western Missouri, and western Arkansas was removed with this update.   
   The Marginal Risk was also trimmed behind ongoing convection. A   
   broken line of storms continues eastward from southern Missouri into   
   central Arkansas but has shown signs of weakening as it has outrun   
   the better moisture to the south. Hi-res guidance from the HRRR and   
   RRFS suggest redevelopment of stronger storms, and perhaps a   
   supercell or two, will be possible across central and northeastern   
   Arkansas later this afternoon.   
      
   There are a few breaks in the cloud cover across central/southern   
   Arkansas that could allow for pockets of heating by the afternoon,   
   but overall thermal profiles appear meager, though deep layer shear   
   will remain strong. This leads to some uncertainty in maintenance of   
   any supercells that do develop and as such, a Marginal was   
   maintained to support some isolated threat.   
      
   Another location of interest for the evening will be across portions   
   of Illinois, as mentioned in the previous outlook. Across   
   south-central Illinois some better overlap of weak surface-based   
   instability beneath the LLJ may occur later this evening. See   
   previous discussion below for more information.   
      
   ..Thornton.. 01/08/2026   
      
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026/   
      
   ...Ozark Plateau...   
   Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a potent, negatively   
   tilted shortwave trough and associated speed max/dry slot moving   
   northeast across the KS-OK border.  A broad moist conveyor ahead of   
   the upper disturbance is contributing to a plume of 50s to lower 60s   
   dewpoints from AR into MO ahead of a northeastward-migrating cyclone   
   forecast to move from KS to northern Lower MI.  A broken band of   
   severe thunderstorms this morning is moving rapidly northeast posing   
   primarily a severe-wind gust risk over western parts of the Ozark   
   Plateau through the midday hours.  Weaker buoyancy farther east will   
   be partially offset by a strong northward flux of low-level moisture   
   as the airmass slowly destabilizes beneath an extensive cloud   
   canopy.  It remains uncertain whether a focused and more   
   concentrated risk for severe will persist into the afternoon across   
   the Ozarks.  Nonetheless, an established/mature convective band may   
   continue to yield wind-damage potential given the strong kinematics.   
      
   ...Lower MO Valley into the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys...   
   Strengthening southerly low-level flow and the intensification of a   
   LLJ (60-70 kt) will favor a gradual moistening from south to north   
   across the region through the afternoon and into the evening.   
   Forecast soundings later today into this evening show enlarged   
   hodographs across portions of IL where meager buoyancy is eventually   
   forecast to develop.  Considered a small Slight-Risk but uncertainty   
   in buoyancy magnitude and possible convective line-parallel shear   
   lowers confidence for perhaps a more focused wind hazard this   
   evening.  However, have adjusted low-tornado probabilities farther   
   north into central IL to the southeast of the evolving cyclone where   
   weak surface-based buoyancy may develop.   
      
   ...Mid-South/Lower MS Valley...   
   Much of the region will remain free of convection until after 04Z   
   when increasing low-level confluence may support isolated   
   thunderstorms. Buoyancy will be modest, but vertical shear will be   
   strong enough to support the potential for a few damaging gusts.   
      
   ...Southern AZ...   
   A shortwave trough and associated jet streak are forecast to   
   progress across AZ today. Scant low-level moisture will be in place   
   ahead of this wave but cooling mid-level temperatures and modest   
   mid-level moisture could still support limited buoyancy and the   
   potential for isolated thunderstorms. Given the robust mid-level   
   flow associated with this system, a few stronger gusts are possible.   
   However, overall coverage is currently expected to remain below 5%.   
      
   $$   
      
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