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   ACUS02 KWNS 081729   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 081728   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1128 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026   
      
   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL   
   GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are forecast on Friday from the central Gulf   
   Coast into parts of the lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio   
   Valleys.   
      
   ...East TX into the Lower MS/TN/OH Valleys...   
   At the start of the period, a midlevel shortwave trough and   
   accompanying surface cyclone will be departing the Great Lakes   
   region, while a southwestward-extending cold front moves eastward   
   across the OH and TN Valleys -- stalling with southward extent   
   across the lower MS Valley and western Gulf Coast. Bands of   
   thunderstorms will be ongoing within a plume of low-level warm   
   advection along/ahead of the front -- within an environment   
   characterized by strong deep-layer flow/shear and limited buoyancy.   
   Given the expected linear nature of these storms amid strong   
   low-level flow, damaging gusts will be the primary concern before   
   this activity outpaces the warm sector with eastward extent.   
      
   Farther south and west, a broad midlevel trough will move eastward   
   across the southern Plains toward the MS Valley through the period.   
   Guidance has trended generally slower with this feature in recent   
   runs, with only modest midlevel height falls impinging on the   
   frontal zone and warm sector during the peak convective period. As a   
   result, the overall low-level mass response appears to be somewhat   
   muted compared to earlier runs, with initial frontal-wave   
   development farther south near LA.   
      
   Nevertheless, strengthening low-level warm advection east of the   
   developing frontal wave/surface cyclone will yield an uptick in   
   thunderstorm coverage and intensity within confluence bands from the   
   central Gulf Coast northward into the lower MS and TN Valleys during   
   the afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. Here, upper 60s to   
   near 70 dewpoints (already in place along the central Gulf Coast)   
   will spread northward and destabilize the inland air mass. Despite   
   modest buoyancy, this rich moisture and strong low/deep-layer shear   
   (with increasing low-level hodograph size/curvature) will favor a   
   mix of semi-discrete supercells and clusters -- posing a risk of   
   damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes. Depending on the strength of   
   the low-level jet/mass response, a corridor of higher severe   
   potential will be possible from parts of LA into southern/central   
   MS.   
      
   Additional thunderstorm development/intensification is possible in   
   east TX along/ahead of the stalling front during the afternoon,   
   where sufficient buoyancy and a long/straight hodograph will support   
   a couple organized storms and attendant risk of damaging winds and   
   severe hail.   
      
   ..Weinman.. 01/08/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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