TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168364.weather@1:2320/105 2dc7a6a4   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 081644   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 081644=20   
   ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-081845-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0009   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1044 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Far northeast Oklahoma...southwest   
   Missouri...northern Arkansas   
      
   Concerning...Tornado Watch 1...   
      
   Valid 081644Z - 081845Z   
      
   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1 continues.   
      
   SUMMARY...A squall line is expected to push east/northeast into   
   southwest Missouri and northern Arkansas through early/mid   
   afternoon. Severe wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado, will be   
   possible. Watch issuance downstream of ongoing WW 1 is uncertain,   
   but will be considered if trends begin to suggest an increasing   
   severe threat.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Cloud-top temperatures and lightning data have shown a   
   steady weakening of a squall line across northeast OK over the past   
   hour as the band of storms begins to struggle against diminishing   
   MLCAPE. However, severe wind gusts, including an 81 mph gust near   
   Independence, KS, continue to be noted with this line. These winds   
   are primarily being driven by very strong low-level flow/wind shear   
   as depicted by KINX, KSRX, and KSGF VWP observations that show 50   
   knots winds near 1 km ARL. These strong kinematics are expected to   
   persist - if not intensify - through late morning/early afternoon as   
   the primary upper wave continues to eject towards the mid-MS Valley   
   and an attendant surface cyclone intensifies.=20   
      
   Consequently, even with very meager buoyancy downstream into AR and   
   southern MO (MLCAPE of around 100-250 J/kg), severe/damaging winds   
   appear probable, and a brief tornado or two may be possible with any   
   deeper convective elements given 300-400 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. That   
   said, it remains unclear how widespread these threats will be   
   considering the recent weakening trend, and may be conditioned on   
   the quality of moisture return into and north of the Ozark Plateau   
   through mid-afternoon. Trends will continue to be monitored for the   
   need for downstream watch issuance.   
      
   ..Moore.. 01/08/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!_qc2hK3Hz2Gp5s2EDL_g29SPdoFdzNWIbr5Cf2JCUNGaXITKGQPvJc25g_Ea8ibGPkuEJzZdr=   
   Alwgn90ythFAftglYs$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...   
      
   LAT...LON   35699149 34869516 34859546 34899555 35049562 35189554   
               35459536 35709519 35889514 36109508 36279505 36479504   
               36609505 36779511 36909516 37049515 37189504 38199247   
               38039209 37799181 37479167 37229156 36959147 36649137   
               36209129 35889131 35699149=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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