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   ACUS01 KWNS 081636   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 081634   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1034 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026   
      
   Valid 081630Z - 091200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN   
   OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST   
   ARKANSAS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered severe gusts are possible through midday across eastern   
   portions of Oklahoma and Kansas into western parts of Missouri and   
   northwest Arkansas.  A more broad and isolated risk for damaging   
   gusts and possibly a tornado will persist into tonight from the   
   Ozark Plateau eastward into the low/mid Mississippi and lower Ohio   
   Valleys.   
      
   ...Ozark Plateau...   
   Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a potent, negatively   
   tilted shortwave trough and associated speed max/dry slot moving   
   northeast across the KS-OK border.  A broad moist conveyor ahead of   
   the upper disturbance is contributing to a plume of 50s to lower 60s   
   dewpoints from AR into MO ahead of a northeastward-migrating cyclone   
   forecast to move from KS to northern Lower MI.  A broken band of   
   severe thunderstorms this morning is moving rapidly northeast posing   
   primarily a severe-wind gust risk over western parts of the Ozark   
   Plateau through the midday hours.  Weaker buoyancy farther east will   
   be partially offset by a strong northward flux of low-level moisture   
   as the airmass slowly destabilizes beneath an extensive cloud   
   canopy.  It remains uncertain whether a focused and more   
   concentrated risk for severe will persist into the afternoon across   
   the Ozarks.  Nonetheless, an established/mature convective band may   
   continue to yield wind-damage potential given the strong kinematics.   
      
   ...Lower MO Valley into the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys...   
   Strengthening southerly low-level flow and the intensification of a   
   LLJ (60-70 kt) will favor a gradual moistening from south to north   
   across the region through the afternoon and into the evening.   
   Forecast soundings later today into this evening show enlarged   
   hodographs across portions of IL where meager buoyancy is eventually   
   forecast to develop.  Considered a small Slight-Risk but uncertainty   
   in buoyancy magnitude and possible convective line-parallel shear   
   lowers confidence for perhaps a more focused wind hazard this   
   evening.  However, have adjusted low-tornado probabilities farther   
   north into central IL to the southeast of the evolving cyclone where   
   weak surface-based buoyancy may develop.   
      
   ...Mid-South/Lower MS Valley...   
   Much of the region will remain free of convection until after 04Z   
   when increasing low-level confluence may support isolated   
   thunderstorms. Buoyancy will be modest, but vertical shear will be   
   strong enough to support the potential for a few damaging gusts.   
      
   ...Southern AZ...   
   A shortwave trough and associated jet streak are forecast to   
   progress across AZ today. Scant low-level moisture will be in place   
   ahead of this wave but cooling mid-level temperatures and modest   
   mid-level moisture could still support limited buoyancy and the   
   potential for isolated thunderstorms. Given the robust mid-level   
   flow associated with this system, a few stronger gusts are possible.   
   However, overall coverage is currently expected to remain below 5%.   
      
   ..Smith/Jirak.. 01/08/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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