TZUTC: 0000   
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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 081508   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 081508=20   
   MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-081715-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0008   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0908 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma into adjacent portions of   
   Missouri and Arkansas   
      
   Concerning...Tornado Watch 1...   
      
   Valid 081508Z - 081715Z   
      
   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1 continues.   
      
   SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind gusts and brief tornadoes will   
   continue into the late morning hours for northeast Oklahoma and   
   adjacent portions of Missouri and Arkansas.   
      
   DISCUSSION...VWP observations from KINX in northeast OK depict a   
   steady increase in low-level flow up to 50-60 knots within the 0-2   
   km AGL layer over the past 90 minutes. This is enlarging low-level   
   hodographs with 0-1 km SRH increasing upwards of 400 m2/s2   
   immediately preceding developing warm-advection-driven convection   
   and the more established squall line coming out of central OK.   
   Similarly, the KTLX VWP in central OK is sampling the passage of a   
   75-80 knot mid-level jet that is supporting not only intense   
   deep-layer wind shear but also strong ascent over northeast OK.   
   These strong kinematics should compensate for an otherwise meager   
   thermodynamic environment (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) and will continue to   
   support the potential for brief tornadoes as well as severe wind   
   gusts.=20   
      
   In the short term, the greatest severe wind/tornado threat will   
   likely be associated with the more organized portion of the squall   
   line (currently in Osage/Washington counties, OK) as it moves   
   east/northeast over the next couple of hours. The loosely organized   
   convection to the southeast of the Tulsa metro will likely undergo   
   further organization with an increasing wind/tornado threat within   
   the next couple of hours as a convective band becomes established.   
      
   ..Moore.. 01/08/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!4aGfrpkfL9rAVTePoAI0ZgK0wmh5Ks0CeMGbOo4viq_rS9bO9go0_EP0KAwOYb8SsGtcHCgFd=   
   ag1RRcahkaQXZuY5kE$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...   
      
   LAT...LON   35539430 35119601 35229615 35369621 36699629 36849631   
               36989631 37049618 37229484 37149432 36939407 36379393   
               35759410 35539430=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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