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   SPC AC 081235   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0635 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026   
      
   Valid 081300Z - 091200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND   
   NORTHEAST OK...FAR SOUTHEAST KS...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MO...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Thunderstorms with a threat for isolated severe wind gusts and a   
   brief tornado will be possible today into tonight from parts of the   
   southern Plains eastward into the low/mid Mississippi and lower Ohio   
   Valleys.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A shortwave trough continues to move quickly eastward into the   
   southern High Plains, with a lead vorticity maximum also noted on   
   satellite imagery over northwest TX. Regional radar imagery shows a   
   line of thunderstorms along the leading edge of this vorticity   
   maximum. Expectation is for both the shortwave trough and lead   
   vorticity maximum to continue quickly northeastward, resulting in   
   strong forcing for ascent from OK through the Ozark Plateau and into   
   the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys today. Low-level moisture advection   
   ahead of this wave will support modest buoyancy, with thunderstorms   
   anticipated across much of this region throughout the period.   
      
   Another shortwave trough is dropping quickly southward through CA,   
   and is expected to pivot eastward through southern CA and AZ this   
   evening. Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated ahead of this   
   wave as well.   
      
   ...Southern Plains/Ozarks...   
   As previously mentioned, a lead vorticity maximum is likely   
   supporting the line of thunderstorms currently ongoing from   
   southwest OK into southwest TX. Expectation is for this line to   
   continue northeastward today, into an airmass that is quickly   
   modifying amid strong low-level moisture advection. Many sites in OK   
   are observing dewpoints 25 to 35 deg F higher than 24 hours ago.   
   Thunderstorms within the line are currently elevated, but there   
   could be a trend towards a more surface-based character over the   
   next few hours amid a combination of increasing low-level moisture   
   and cooling mid-level temperatures. This appears most likely from   
   central OK through northeast OK into far southwest MO and far   
   southeast KS, from around 13Z through 18Z. After 18Z, the quick   
   progression of the shortwave will likely lead to an outpacing of the   
   better low-level moisture return, with dewpoints across much of MO   
   maxing out around 58-60 deg F.   
      
   Given the robust shear already in place (recent KTLX VAD sampled   
   over 35 kt of 0-1 km shear and over 55 kt of 0-6 km shear), this   
   potential for surface-based storms will increase the overall risk   
   for damaging wind gusts and/or a brief tornado. Recently issued MCD   
   #0006 addresses the near-term severe potential across this region.   
      
   ...Lower MO Valley into the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys...   
   Low-level moisture will be lower here than areas farther south,   
   likely remaining the 50s, but strong forcing for ascent and robust   
   wind fields could still result in damaging gusts, particularly near   
   and just ahead of the surface low forecast to move quickly   
   northeastward from central KS through northwest MO, southern/eastern   
   IA, and southern WI. Wind probabilities were expanded northwestward   
   given anticipated track of the surface low. Strong gusts also remain   
   possible along the cold front associated with this low, but limited   
   low-level moisture and buoyancy should keep this time isolated as   
   well.   
      
   ...Southern AZ...   
   A shortwave trough and associated jet streak are forecast to   
   progress across AZ today. Scant low-level moisture will be in place   
   ahead of this wave but cooling mid-level temperatures and modest   
   mid-level moisture could still support limited buoyancy and the   
   potential for isolated thunderstorms. Given the robust mid-level   
   flow associated with this system, a few stronger gusts are possible.   
   However, overall coverage is currently expected to remain below 5%.   
      
   ...Mid-South/Lower MS Valley...   
   Much of the region will remain free of convection until after 04Z   
   when increasing low-level confluence may support isolated   
   thunderstorms. Buoyancy will be modest, but vertical shear will be   
   strong enough to support the potential for a few damaging gusts.   
      
   ..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/08/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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