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   FOUS11 KWBC 080813   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   313 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026   
      
   Valid 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026   
      
      
   ...Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, Northern Rockies...   
   Days 1-1.5...   
      
   A shortwave trough over northern CA this morning will strengthen as   
   it tracks south and east into the southwestern U.S.. Farther north,   
   a second shortwave trough over British Columbia will also dig   
   farther south across the northern Rockies and northeast High   
   Plains. Residual 700-300mb Pacific moisture will stream across the   
   Pacific NW and into the both the Northern Rockies and Great Basin   
   to continue to produce additional mountain snow through Thursday.   
   Snow levels in the northern Cascades and Olympics will be as low as   
   1,000ft today, but the heavier snowfall will remain confined to   
   elevations above 2,000ft. Farther east, the northern Rockies'   
   heaviest snowfall will be above 5,000ft and above 6,000ft in the   
   Great Basin. WPC probabilities show high chances (>70%) for   
   snowfall totals >6" for elevations above 3,000ft in the Cascades   
   and Olympics. Similar high chance probabilities are present in   
   parts of the Lewis, Bitterroots, Blue, and Teton Ranges for   
   additional snowfall >4". Snow will linger longest over the Cascades   
   and northern Bitterroots through Thursday night, but as the long   
   awaited upper level ridge builds in on Friday, snow levels will   
   rise and snow will taper off across all mountains ranges into the   
   start of the weekend.   
      
      
   ...Four Corners into the High Plains...   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   A pair of shortwave troughs will be responsible for rounds of   
   moderate-to-heavy snowfall over the Central and Southern Rockies,   
   with some snowfall into the central High Plains also expected. This   
   morning, a strengthening storm system over western KS and eastern   
   CO brought along a plume of subtropical moisture that is streaming   
   over the Four Corner states. Snow levels will dip to as low as   
   5,000ft in central CO and central UT with light snow falling in the   
   SLC and Denver metro areas. As this disturbance races into the   
   Midwest this afternoon, a second and more vigorous upper level   
   shortwave over the Great Basin heads east for the Four Corners   
   region, bringing with it not only additional Pacific moisture but   
   height falls, better PVA, and jet streak dynamics aloft. Guidance   
   shows a healthy area of 700mb Q-vector convergence shifting from   
   the Mogollon Rim and Wasatch this morning to the central and   
   southern Rockies by this afternoon, where periods of snow will   
   envelope most mountain ranges. Snow levels along the Mogollon Rim   
   will be as low as 6,000ft, while central and southern UT sees snow   
   levels still hovering as low as 5,000ft. The Gila Mountains and   
   southwest CO will also see an uptick in snowfall this afternoon   
   before tapering off early Friday morning.   
      
   Farther east, as the enhanced Q-vector convergence heads for the   
   Front Range of the Rockies and the High Plains this evening, a   
   closed 700mb low will develop over northern NM that gives rise to a   
   surface low forming in lee of the Sangre De Cristo mountains. Low-   
   level easterly winds over the central High Plains fosters upslope   
   flow into southern CO and northern NM beginning Thursday night and   
   peaking Friday morning as the 700mb low tracks just south of Raton   
   Pass. There remains some disagreement on the placement of the best   
   700mb FGEN as the 700mb low emerges into northeast NM and tracks   
   towards the OK/TX Panhandles. Where the best FGEN forcing sets up   
   and the strength of the 700mb low will be vital in where the   
   heaviest snowfall occurs and how far east away from the Raton Mesa   
   and Front Range the band of heavy snow can advance. Beneath the   
   700mb FGEN, >1"/hr snowfall rates are expected. As the 700mb low   
   moves northeast Friday afternoon, it will weaken and open up into a   
   progressive 500mb shortwave, resulting in frontolysis over western   
   KS that reduces precipitation rates and weakens dynamic cooling   
   aloft.   
      
   At this time, WPC probabilities are highlighting the usual   
   suspects (Palmer Divide, Front Range, Raton Mesa) as having   
   moderate-to-high chances (>70%) for snowfall totals >4". I-25 at   
   Raton Pass sports moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for snowfall   
   totals >6". Localized snowfall totals >8" along the peaks of the   
   Sangre De Cristo and Raton Mesa are possible. Farther east, WPC   
   probabilities show moderate chances (40-60%) for snowfall totals   
   >4" in southeast CO , southwest KS, the far western OK Panhandle,   
   and the northwest tip of the TX Panhandle. The WSSI shows   
   widespread Minor Impacts (winter driving conditions; use caution   
   when driving) for much of the central High Plains with localized   
   Moderate Impacts possible.   
      
      
   ...Upper Midwest & Great Lakes...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   An active stretch of potent storm systems will bring a wide range   
   of winter precip types to the Midwest and Great Lakes the   
   remainder of the week. The first storm system will track from KS on   
   north and east into IA this evening, then over northern MI by   
   Friday morning. Dynamic cooling beneath a coupling jet-streaks   
   structure is a plausible scenario from as far south and west as   
   eastern NE to as far north as the MI U.P.. Given the rapid   
   progression of the QPF shield, accumulating snow over 1" will be   
   tough for areas south and west of northern WI. However, over   
   northern WI and the MI U.P., the timing of the changeover to snow   
   coincides with the middle of the night, allowing for a better   
   chance for snowfall accumulations. Marquette's area in particular   
   will have better chances for accumulating snow as onshore, lake-   
   enhanced snowfall ensues. Snow tapers off Friday morning as the   
   storm races north into Ontario. WPC probabilities shows moderate   
   chances (>50%) for snowfall totals >4" in MI's Huron Mountains with   
   similar >50% probabilities for >2" extending southward into   
   northern WI. There is also the potential for light ice   
   accumulations from northern IA and southern MN to northern WI and   
   the western MI U.P. with WPC probabilities showing moderate chances   
   (40-60%) for ice accumulations over one-hundreth of an inch. Ice   
   accumulation could occur near the evening rush hour in southern MN   
   and central WI.   
      
   By Saturday night, the shortwave trough responsible for the heavy   
   snow in the the southern and central Rockies/High Plains heads east   
   towards the MS Valley at the same time as a closed 500mb low over   
   in Canada plunges south into the Upper Midwest. Guidance has come   
   into better consensus on the northern stream feature effectively   
   shearing the southern disturbance and becoming the more dominant   
   feature. As the 500mb low will direct PVA at the Great Lakes, a   
   strengthening wave of low pressure and 850-700mb WAA will produce a   
   larger shield of snow developing initially over southern WI and   
   northern IL. As moisture wraps northward around the deepening   
   850mb low over northern MI, a TROWAL will pivot over northern WI   
   and the MI U.P., prompting the development of heavy snow in these   
   areas Saturday afternoon and persisting into Saturday night. The   
   low will occlude over Lake Huron early Sunday morning as the   
   deformation zone of heavy snow pivots over the tip of MI's Mitten.   
   Once occluded, the upper low will weaken and move east as more   
   progressive flow over the Canadian Prairies kicks the storm east   
   into Ontario Sunday afternoon.   
      
   WPC probabilities show moderate-to-high chances (50-0%) for   
   snowfall totals >4" from the Green Bay area in eastern WI on north   
   and east through the eastern MI U.P. and the northern tier of MI's   
   L.P. (Lower Peninsula). The tip of MI's L.P. are favored to contend   
   with the heaviest snowfall given their longer duration beneath the   
   TROWAL and some lingering lake-enhanced snowfall in wake of the   
   storm early Sunday. WPC probabilities depict low-to-moderate   
   chances (30-50%) for snowfall totals >8" here with localized totals   
   approaching a foot a possibility.   
      
      
   ...Interior Northeast...   
   Day 3...   
      
   The storm responsible for heavy snow over the northern Great Lakes   
   on Saturday will also generate a hazardous wintry mix from   
   northern PA on northward into the northern Appalachians. The   
   Northeast will lay ahead of a strong >750kg/m/s IVT that will   
   direct copious amounts of moisture northward on Saturday. At the   
   same time, a cold front will provide just enough cold/dry air at   
   the surface with Canadian high pressure to the north creating a   
   weak CAD signature over the Northeast. This healthy 850-700mb WAA   
   will support a classic overrunning setup of >0C air aloft causing a   
   mixture of sleet/freezing rain to unfold beginning Saturday   
   afternoon and continuing into Saturday night. Precipitation may   
   start out as snow in far northern New England, where wet-bulb   
   temperatures down the surface may initially support snow. Still,   
   the concern is for mountains such as the Catskills, Berkshires,   
   Greens, Adirondacks, and Whites where surface temperatures have   
   better odds of staying sub-freezing Saturday night and into Sunday   
   morning.   
      
   While minor ice accumulations over one-hundreth of an inch are   
   likely (>70% probabilities) in the Adirondack and Green Mountains,   
   these ranges also could witness ice accumulations over one-tenth of   
   an inch, resulting in greater odds for hazardous travels   
   conditions Saturday evening that linger into Sunday morning. In   
   terms of snow, the latest forecast generally calls for minor   
   accumulations (2-4" of snow) over northern Maine, but localized   
   totals over 6" are possible. WPC's WSSI-P shows >50% chances for   
   Minor Impacts over the Adirondacks, the Green and White Mountains,   
   and through much of northern Maine late Saturday into early Sunday.   
      
      
   Mullinax   
      
      
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
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