TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168349.weather@1:2320/105 2dc7328f   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS03 KWNS 080829   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 080828   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0228 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026   
      
   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE   
   SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday from the   
   Southeast into parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia.   
      
   ...Southeast into the Carolinas and Virginia...   
   An upper trough will amplify and move eastward across the eastern   
   CONUS on Saturday, as an embedded midlevel cyclone moves across the   
   Great Lakes region. A surface low initially over the TN Valley will   
   move towards the Mid Atlantic, as another surface low develops   
   farther north near the lower Great Lakes.   
      
   Widespread convection will likely be ongoing Saturday morning from   
   parts of the Southeast into the southern Appalachians vicinity.   
   Deep-layer flow/shear will be strong, and seasonably rich low-level   
   moisture will be in place ahead of an eastward-moving cold front.   
   Organized cells/clusters that develop during the D2/Friday period   
   may persist through at least the first part of the day, with a   
   continued threat for at least locally damaging wind, and potentially   
   a tornado threat where vigorous surface-based convection can   
   persist. Longevity of the threat with time and eastward extent   
   remains uncertain, with an expected tendency for weakening buoyancy   
   and diminishing ascent across the warm sector. Some potential for   
   locally damaging wind could spread into parts of the Carolinas and   
   Virginia before the threat diminishes as the cold front moves   
   through.   
      
   A Marginal Risk has been included for areas forecast to be   
   along/ahead of the cold front at the start of the period and   
   near/south of the consensus surface-low track. A Slight Risk was   
   considered for parts of eastern MS into AL and western GA, as a   
   continuation of the severe threat from late D2/Friday into Saturday   
   morning, but deferred to future outlooks given uncertainty regarding   
   the impact of widespread convection within the warm sector by the   
   beginning of the D3/Saturday period.   
      
   ..Dean.. 01/08/2026   
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 19/10 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302 128/187 129/14   
   SEEN-BY: 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50 110 700 218/700 840 220/10 20 30   
   SEEN-BY: 220/70 90 221/1 6 360 226/17 18 30 44 50 227/114 229/110   
   SEEN-BY: 229/134 206 275 300 307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 266/512   
   SEEN-BY: 267/800 291/111 301/1 320/219 322/757 335/364 341/66 342/200   
   SEEN-BY: 396/45 460/58 633/280 712/848 770/1 100 340 350 772/210 220   
   SEEN-BY: 772/230 902/26 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 218/840 770/1 633/280 229/426