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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   215 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026   
      
   ...THERE ARE MARGINAL RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE MIDWEST & LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...   
      
   Midwest/Lower Mississippi Valley...   
   A strong shortwave preceding the incoming upper level trough is=20   
   expected to bring 500+ J/kg of MU CAPE into portions of the region=20   
   during the day on Thursday. The 00z NAM's 2000+ J/kg bulls eye in=20   
   KS/MO right at the beginning of the period appears unrealistic/too   
   high based on recent SPC mesoanalysis MU CAPE trends, though its=20   
   trailing instability appears more reasonable, reinforced by the 03z   
   RAP. The mesoscale guidance advertises small areas of a low risk=20   
   of 3"+ across portions of KS, MO, IL, IN, and eventually LA and MS=20   
   Thursday night/early Friday morning. While precipitable water=20   
   values are in the 1-1.25" range for northern areas and 1.5"+ range=20   
   for southern areas, the atmosphere should be well saturated. There=20   
   appears to be enough instability to realize local hourly amounts of   
   1.5"+ where a sufficient number of organized thunderstorms are=20   
   able to materialize. Right now, that appears to be the biggest=20   
   issue. While it has been dry lately, flash flood guidance values=20   
   are modest across much of the area, with 3 hour guidance closer to=20   
   3" for the Lower Mississippi Valley, 2.5" for portions of KS/MO,=20   
   and 2" for IL/IN. The guidance indicates that the heavy rainfall=20   
   should move through quickly, so local amounts of 2-3" within a=20   
   couple hours could be enough for isolated to widely scattered=20   
   issues, particularly in urban areas. This led to the introduction=20   
   of Marginal Risk areas for the areas mentioned above.   
      
   Roth   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026   
      
   ..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF   
   THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH...   
      
   Lower Mississippi Valley/Southern Appalachians...   
   A positively tilted trough with minimal eastward progression due to   
   the parent cyclone's progression northeast will generate a broad=20   
   axis of ascent from the Mississippi Valley to points eastward with=20   
   a cold frontal progression slowly migrating east. An anomalously=20   
   moisture plume ahead of the trough, noteworthy for January and near   
   summer averages with a range of 1.50-1.75", will be accompanied by   
   500-1500 J/kg of MU CAPE. Ample shear for convective organization=20   
   is expected, with low- level convergence more or less fixed from=20   
   the Atchafalya Basin in LA into the southern Appalachians. The=20   
   guidance is wet, with local 4-7" totals forecast locally. The   
   guidance has shifted southwest,. which caused a southwest shift in   
   the risk areas.   
      
   This synoptic setup is classic for a flash flood prospect across=20   
   this region. Deep layer southwest flow should lead to cell=20   
   training, and enough effective bulk shear exists for mesocyclone=20   
   formation. Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" are possible here, which=20   
   would overwhelm urban environments. The 00z HREF for the first half   
   of the period advertised a 30-35% of 5"+ near Laurel MS, which if=20   
   it occurred within a few hours would overwhelm non-urban=20   
   environments as well. At the moment, this appears to be a high end   
   Slight Risk, but it wouldn't be surprising if a Moderate Risk=20   
   was considered as we get further inside the mesoscale guidance=20   
   window. The eastern bounds of the Marginal Risk area were=20   
   coordinated with the RNK/Blacksburg VA, GSP/Greer SC, and=20   
   FFC/Peachtree City GA forecast offices.   
      
   Roth   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS=20   
   OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...   
      
   Heavy rainfall early in the period is expected over what should be   
   at least partially saturated ground across portions of the=20   
   Southern Appalachians before heavy rainfall ejects into the=20   
   southern Mid- Atlantic States. Added a Marginal Risk as a=20   
   precaution for this reason; the threat not expected to persist past   
   18z Saturday.   
      
   Roth   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6oqSrUoWKGqc9jpeU2_TgEW-NgvCN1IJYvktPyKHPvvQ=   
   x1ILwtSqhYoOd1rqgw2jGqmex3DGkkCPN9ZZouSXqC5pygo$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6oqSrUoWKGqc9jpeU2_TgEW-NgvCN1IJYvktPyKHPvvQ=   
   x1ILwtSqhYoOd1rqgw2jGqmex3DGkkCPN9ZZouSX9Azh2_A$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6oqSrUoWKGqc9jpeU2_TgEW-NgvCN1IJYvktPyKHPvvQ=   
   x1ILwtSqhYoOd1rqgw2jGqmex3DGkkCPN9ZZouSXygSJeSg$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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