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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   SPC AC 080659   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1259 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026   
      
   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF LA/MS   
   AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AR AND WESTERN/NORTHERN AL...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from Louisiana into   
   parts of the Mid-South and Southeast.   
      
   ...East TX into the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South...   
   In the wake of a departing mid/upper shortwave trough and surface   
   low, a cold front is forecast to slow down by afternoon and perhaps   
   become nearly stationary from near the ArkLaTex region to the   
   Mid-South. As an upstream mid/upper trough approaches from the west,   
   cyclogenesis is expected along this front, with the surface low   
   expected to move east-northeastward toward the TN Valley by Saturday   
   morning.   
      
   Seasonably rich low-level moisture will be in place within the warm   
   sector of this cyclone, and low-level and deep-layer shear will   
   increase with time as the frontal wave develops. However, guidance   
   continues to vary somewhat regarding the extent of phasing between   
   the approaching shortwave trough across the southern Plains and a   
   strong shortwave trough digging southeastward from the Canadian   
   Prairies. There are also varying solutions regarding the coverage of   
   early-day convection, and the extent to which it hampers warm-sector   
   destabilization as low-level and deep-layer shear strengthens.   
      
   Early-day storms within the modest warm-advection regime from east   
   TX into the lower MS Valley could pose a low-probability threat of   
   all severe hazards. An increase in the severe potential could evolve   
   from late afternoon into the evening, as low-level and deep-layer   
   shear begin to strengthen in response to the approaching trough.   
   Organized clusters and a few supercells will be possible, with an   
   attendant damaging-wind and tornado threat that may continue into   
   late Friday night. However, if early-day convection becomes   
   widespread with increasingly prominent outflow (as indicated by some   
   00Z HREF members), the magnitude and north/east extent of the   
   organized severe threat may be relatively limited. The greatest   
   relative confidence in an organized severe threat is currently   
   across parts of LA into central/southern MS, with a more conditional   
   threat to the north and east of this area.   
      
   ..Dean.. 01/08/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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