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   SPC AC 080554   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1154 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026   
      
   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF   
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI   
   AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Thunderstorms with a threat for isolated severe wind gusts and a   
   brief tornado will be possible today into tonight from parts of the   
   southern Plains eastward into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio   
   Valleys.   
      
   ...Southern Plains/Ozarks...   
   At the start of the period, a mid-level trough and an associated jet   
   streak will be located in the southern High Plains. An axis of weak   
   instability is forecast from northwest Texas northeastward across   
   Oklahoma. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z along parts of   
   this corridor, supported by a strong low-level jet. Forecast   
   soundings near the instability axis this morning have MLCAPE around   
   750 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 55 to 65 knot range. Low to   
   mid-level lapse rates should be modest remaining in the 6 to 6.5   
   C/km range. This should be enough for an isolated hail threat with   
   cells that rotate. In addition, a fast northeastward storm motion   
   could be enough to produce marginally severe winds at the surface. A   
   brief tornado will also be possible. The isolated severe threat   
   could persist into the afternoon as the line moves into the Ozarks.   
      
   ...Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys...   
   A mid-level trough, and an associated 55 to 65 knot low-level jet,   
   will move quickly northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley this   
   afternoon. Ahead of the trough, strong moisture advection will take   
   place, with surface dewpoints increasing into the upper 50s and   
   lower 60s F over much of the mid Mississippi Valley. In response, an   
   axis of weak instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from   
   central Arkansas northeastward into south-central Illinois. A line   
   of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop along the instability   
   axis in the late afternoon and early evening. This line should move   
   east-northeastward across the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio   
   Valleys. RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis   
   at 00Z have MLCAPE around 500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 60 to   
   70 knot range. This, combined with large-scale ascent ahead of the   
   trough, will support a marginal severe threat. Any line segment that   
   can become organized could produce isolated severe wind gusts, and   
   possibly a brief tornado.   
      
   At this point, there is uncertainty as to where the greatest severe   
   threat will be as the system ejects northeastward across the mid   
   Mississippi Valley. It is possible that the potential for severe   
   wind gusts could become maximized near the exit region of the   
   mid-level jet streak early this evening from east-central Missouri   
   across central Illinois into western Indiana. For this reason, have   
   expanded the Marginal Risk area northeastward to account for this   
   possibility.   
      
   ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 01/08/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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