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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 080048   
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   SPC AC 080047   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0647 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026   
      
   Valid 080100Z - 081200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF   
   WEST AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   A few marginally severe storms may occur late tonight into Thursday   
   morning from west and northwest Texas northeastward into Oklahoma.   
      
   ...West and Northwest Texas/Oklahoma...   
   A low pressure center is evident on water vapor over northern Baja   
   California. This feature, and its associated mid-level trough will   
   move east-northeastward across northern Mexico this evening, and   
   into the southern Plains late tonight. Ahead of the trough,   
   low-level moisture will spread northward from north Texas into   
   Oklahoma, with the western edge of the moist airmass located from   
   southwest Oklahoma southward into west-central Texas. Weak   
   instability is expected to develop along the northwestern edge of   
   this airmass, where a low-level jet will gradually strengthen. Lift   
   associated with the jet will support isolated thunderstorm   
   development, beginning after midnight in west-central Texas.   
   Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase in coverage, moving   
   northeastward into southwest and central Oklahoma by late in the   
   period.   
      
   RAP forecast soundings around midnight show a stout cap in place   
   from near the instability axis eastward, suggesting that any storms   
   that can initiate will likely be elevated at first. Some of the   
   cells could become surface-based later tonight, as the capped   
   airmass shifts eastward due to the approaching mid-level trough.   
   Forecast soundings from west-central Texas into far southwest   
   Oklahoma have effective shear of 50 to 60 knots, with 700-500 mb   
   lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km. This could be enough for a marginal hail   
   threat. For cells that become surface-based, a few isolated severe   
   wind gusts will also be possible. The greatest potential for   
   isolated severe should be in the 08Z to 12Z timeframe.   
      
   ..Broyles.. 01/08/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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