TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168342.weather@1:2320/105 2dc6c528   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   FOUS30 KWBC 080042   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   742 PM EST Wed Jan 7 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 01Z Thu Jan 08 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is   
   less than 5 percent.   
      
   Hurley   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is   
   less than 5 percent.   
      
   Cook/Kleebauer   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF   
   THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH...   
      
   ...21Z Outlook Update...   
   A few modifications were made to the Marginal and Slight Risk   
   areas - mainly to trend southward and slightly westward per 12Z   
   guidance. These expansions now include Birmingham, AL and Jackson,   
   MS metropolitan areas. QPFs have increased in these areas, and the   
   nature of the forcing/ascent suggests potential for a few storms to   
   train. Additionally, storms may focus along a warm front oriented   
   east to west across the region, but models are generally uncertain   
   on where this front will reside when the bulk of the convection   
   moves through the risk areas. Furthermore, mesoscale details are   
   unclear and outflows/convective augmentation of the warm front are   
   all possible. Potential is there for a localized region of 5+   
   inches of rain during the forecast period but with details   
   remaining unclear, holding at Slight/Marginal seems to be the best   
   course of action. Ground conditions are quite dry, which lends some   
   uncertainty on the ground impacts/flash flood potential but if   
   enough rainfall occurs on a localized basis, that aspect of the   
   forecast may not matter as much.   
      
   See the prior forecast below for additional information.   
      
   Cook   
      
   ...Previous Discussion...   
      
   Large scale amplification of a trough over the Central Rockies into   
   the Central Plains will generate a broad axis of ascent from the   
   Mississippi Valley to points eastward with a cold frontal   
   progression slowly migrating east across the aforementioned areas.   
   Meridional component of the pattern evolution will benefit from the   
   strengthening mean trough with multiple shortwave ejections   
   rounding the trough base across the Lower Mississippi Valley,   
   advancing northeast through the Southeastern U.S. before migrating   
   into the Tennessee Valley by the end of the D3. Deep moisture plume   
   ahead of the trough will usher anomalous PWATs on the order of +2   
   to +4 sigma spanning east TX through much of the Southeast into   
   the Southern Ohio Valley. Ample shear and deep moist axis will   
   maintain a prevalent fixture for much of the period with flow   
   running close to, if not parallel to the frontal axis that will   
   bisect southwest to northeast across the Lower Mississippi Valley   
   through Central and Northern MS/AL into TN. Current ensemble trends   
   favor a rather broad axis of 2-3" precip totals just within the   
   means with the deterministic output pushing closer to 4-5" with the   
   maxima focused over central MS up through northern AL to south-   
   central TN. This aligns well with the pattern evolution progressing   
   the front into those confines with a multi-wave ejection riding   
   into the front as they eject out of the broad deep-layer   
   southwesterly flow situated across the region.   
      
   This setup is classic for a winter time flash flood prospect across   
   this area of the CONUS as broad ascent coupled with ample deep-   
   layer shear and highly anomalous moisture tends to amplify the   
   threat for heavy rainfall repeating over the same areas. This is   
   being forecast within the Southeast and far southern edge of the   
   Ohio Valley with the ensemble overlap generally in that corridor   
   from east-central MS to points north and east with a maxima   
   oriented over northern AL into southern TN. This is likely the area   
   to watch, however don't be surprised if areas south across the   
   southern half of MS into parts of LA see a greater heavy convective   
   signature that tends to crop up in the short range as the   
   instability maximum tends to verify a bit further south compared   
   to what global deterministic output has at this lead. For now,   
   maintained general continuity in the grand scheme, but adjusted the   
   SLGT and MRGL risks based on QPF trends and alignment with the   
   greatest potential for training, and elevated theta_E placement.   
      
   Kleebauer   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4VTz3mDXzK6Lll9d61JeRHPlRLeNGboZtYccpIDxJafu=   
   ShB084rcjPtH3j8xlt8-rBGdsIN81qxFvvtrcu1gBFW14o8$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4VTz3mDXzK6Lll9d61JeRHPlRLeNGboZtYccpIDxJafu=   
   ShB084rcjPtH3j8xlt8-rBGdsIN81qxFvvtrcu1gQYyir1o$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4VTz3mDXzK6Lll9d61JeRHPlRLeNGboZtYccpIDxJafu=   
   ShB084rcjPtH3j8xlt8-rBGdsIN81qxFvvtrcu1gPGbrqaY$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 16/0 19/10 37 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 123/130 128/187 129/14 142/104 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50   
   SEEN-BY: 154/110 700 203/0 218/700 840 220/10 20 30 90 221/1 6 360   
   SEEN-BY: 226/18 30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134 206 275 300 307 317 400   
   SEEN-BY: 229/426 428 470 664 700 705 240/5832 266/512 280/5003 291/111   
   SEEN-BY: 301/1 320/119 219 319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364 341/66   
   SEEN-BY: 342/200 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26 2320/0   
   SEEN-BY: 2320/105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 1 320/219 229/426