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   ACUS01 KWNS 071929   
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   SPC AC 071927   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0127 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026   
      
   Valid 072000Z - 081200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM   
   NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   A few marginally severe storms may occur late tonight into Thursday   
   morning mainly from northwest Texas into western Oklahoma.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Little change from the previous outlook thinking, as instability and   
   lift are expected to develop late tonight toward the end of the   
   period.   
      
   A shortwave trough is currently over northern Baja CA, and this will   
   move quickly eastward tonight, arriving into western TX by Thursday   
   morning. Persistent southerly low-level flow will eventually bring   
   60s F dewpoints into northern TX and OK, ahead of a developing cold   
   front, with ascent increasing early Thursday morning after about   
   09Z.   
      
   Isolated elevated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front   
   into part of OK into far southern KS after 09Z, though this will   
   depend on boundary layer moisture quality. Conditionally, a storm or   
   two may produce hail as effective shear will be supportive.   
      
   ..Jewell.. 01/07/2026   
      
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026/   
      
   ...Southwest TX into Central OK...   
   Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough   
   immediately west of Baja California while a progressive flow regime   
   prevails across the northern half of the Lower 48.  The   
   aforementioned upper disturbance is forecast to quickly move east   
   across the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts and into west/northwest TX   
   by early Thursday morning.   
      
   A reservoir of partially modified Gulf moisture (60s deg F surface   
   dewpoints) resides over the coastal plain of TX this morning.  As   
   the upper trough approaches the southern Great Plains tonight,   
   strengthening low-level flow will advect this moisture northwestward   
   into parts of northwest TX into central OK during the 08-12 UTC   
   period.  Although the primary cyclone will remain near the   
   CO-NM-OK-KS-TX border region while deepening considerably, the   
   attendant warm front will serve as the main low-level feature of   
   interest.  Warm advection/isentropic lift will favor isolated to   
   scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late tonight over   
   west into northwest TX and eventually into central OK.  Model-based   
   soundings imply elevated parcels and MUCAPE ranging from 500-1000   
   J/kg amidst strong deep-layer shear.  An isolated risk for large   
   hail may accompany the stronger storms along with the possibility of   
   localized severe gusts.   
      
   $$   
      
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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