TZUTC: 0000   
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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS03 KWNS 071914   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 071913   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0113 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026   
      
   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS   
   VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from the lower   
   Mississippi Valley into parts of the Mid-South and Southeast.   
      
   ...Lower MS Valley into parts of the Southeast and TN/OH Valleys...   
   In the wake of a negative-tilt shortwave trough and related surface   
   low departing the Great Lakes region, a front will extend from the   
   surface low southwestward along the lower/middle OH Valley into the   
   Arklatex through the first half of the period. During this time,   
   broad low-level warm advection amid a relatively moist air mass   
   ahead of the front will support training thunderstorms beneath a   
   belt of strong, front-parallel midlevel southwesterly flow. Despite   
   poor deep-layer lapse rates and limited buoyancy, around 50 kt of   
   effective shear may promote a couple strong to severe storms capable   
   of damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and possibly a brief   
   tornado into the afternoon hours.   
      
   In the 21-03Z time frame, midlevel height falls accompanying a broad   
   upstream trough will impinge on the frontal zone over the Mid-South   
   vicinity. In response, a frontal wave will evolve into a surface low   
   while tracking east-northeastward across the TN Valley during the   
   overnight hours. Strengthening low-level warm-advection amid a plume   
   of moist/uncapped air (middle/upper 60s dewpoints) will yield a   
   quick uptick in thunderstorm coverage across the lower MS and TN   
   Valleys. Around 50-60 kt of effective shear and enlarging low-level   
   hodographs ahead of the low will conditionally favor a mix of   
   organized clusters and semi-discrete supercell structures -- posing   
   a risk of damaging winds and possibly a couple tornadoes. However,   
   weak buoyancy and the potential for many storm interactions increase   
   the overall conditionality of the tornado risk.   
      
   ..Weinman.. 01/07/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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