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   ACUS02 KWNS 071724   
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   SPC AC 071723   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1123 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026   
      
   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE   
   SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from Oklahoma into   
   parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley.   
      
   ...Southern Plains into the Lower/Mid MS Valley...   
   Within a belt of broad/enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow, a   
   negative-tilt shortwave trough and accompanying surface low will   
   track northeastward from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes   
   through the period.   
      
   Strongly forced thunderstorms will be ongoing/spreading   
   east-northeastward across OK at the start of the period. While poor   
   midlevel lapse rates and only partially modified Gulf moisture will   
   limit buoyancy for these storms, 50-60 kt of effective shear will   
   support a few organized clusters/line segments and perhaps transient   
   supercell structures. Isolated large hail will be the primary   
   concern, though locally damaging gusts and a brief tornado will be   
   possible with any surface-based storms that can evolve.   
      
   This activity will spread/develop northeastward into the Ozarks and   
   eventually the Lower OH Valley vicinity through the   
   afternoon/evening, in tandem with the midlevel trough and surface   
   low. Here, boundary-layer moisture and related buoyancy will become   
   more limited with northward extent, though strengthening deep-layer   
   flow/shear (to include a 50-kt low-level jet) will continue to   
   support a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and   
   possibly a brief tornado. Multiple rounds of storms will be possible   
   through this corridor into the overnight hours ahead of an   
   approaching front. Farther southeast, recent high-resolution   
   guidance depicts a band of storms developing within broad/moist   
   confluent low-level flow over the Lower MS Valley late in the   
   period. While these storms will be on the eastern edge of the warm   
   sector, strong low/deep-layer shear will yield a conditional severe   
   risk.   
      
   ...Arizona...   
   Thunderstorm potential is expected to increase through the day   
   across parts of AZ, as a midlevel shortwave trough moves   
   east-southeastward across the region. Gusty winds and/or small hail   
   could occur with the strongest convection, though buoyancy is   
   currently expected to remain too meager for an organized severe   
   threat.   
      
   ..Weinman.. 01/07/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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