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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 071619   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 071617   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1017 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026   
      
   Valid 071630Z - 081200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS   
   INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Marginally severe storms are possible from late tonight into the   
   early morning on Thursday from parts of west and northwest Texas   
   northeastward into Oklahoma.   
      
   ...Southwest TX into Central OK...   
   Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough   
   immediately west of Baja California while a progressive flow regime   
   prevails across the northern half of the Lower 48.  The   
   aforementioned upper disturbance is forecast to quickly move east   
   across the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts and into west/northwest TX   
   by early Thursday morning.   
      
   A reservoir of partially modified Gulf moisture (60s deg F surface   
   dewpoints) resides over the coastal plain of TX this morning.  As   
   the upper trough approaches the southern Great Plains tonight,   
   strengthening low-level flow will advect this moisture northwestward   
   into parts of northwest TX into central OK during the 08-12 UTC   
   period.  Although the primary cyclone will remain near the   
   CO-NM-OK-KS-TX border region while deepening considerably, the   
   attendant warm front will serve as the main low-level feature of   
   interest.  Warm advection/isentropic lift will favor isolated to   
   scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late tonight over   
   west into northwest TX and eventually into central OK.  Model-based   
   soundings imply elevated parcels and MUCAPE ranging from 500-1000   
   J/kg amidst strong deep-layer shear.  An isolated risk for large   
   hail may accompany the stronger storms along with the possibility of   
   localized severe gusts.   
      
   ..Smith/Wendt.. 01/07/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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