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   ACUS01 KWNS 071254   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 071253   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0653 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026   
      
   Valid 071300Z - 081200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST   
   TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Marginally severe storms are possible from late tonight into the   
   early morning on Thursday from parts of west and northwest Texas   
   northeastward into Oklahoma.   
      
   ...Southwest TX into Central OK...   
   Early-morning satellite imagery shows a compact cyclone just off the   
   coast of the northern Baja Peninsula. This cyclone is forecast to   
   move quickly eastward across southern AZ/NM and northern Mexico   
   throughout the day today, devolving into an open wave. This wave   
   will likely pivot into a more negative tilt by early tomorrow as it   
   moves across the southern High Plains. Strong mid-level flow will   
   accompany this wave, spreading eastward/northeastward across much of   
   the southern Plains and Ozark Plateau.   
      
   Significant mass response, and associated airmass modification, will   
   occur across the southern Plains ahead of the this low, with the   
   low-level moisture (i.e. low 60s dewpoints) currently confined to   
   the TX Coastal Plain and South TX likely reaching southern OK by   
   early tomorrow. Expectation is for ascent attendant to the   
   approaching shortwave to interact with the northwestern periphery of   
   this moisture return during the last few hours of the period (i.e.   
   08Z-12Z Wednesday), resulting in elevated thunderstorms from   
   southwest TX into central OK. Buoyancy will be modest (i.e. MUCAPE   
   from 500 to 1000 J/kg), fostered by a combination of steepening   
   mid-level lapse rates and increased low to mid-level moisture.   
   Strong deep-layer vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear of 40 to 60   
   kt) will be in place as well, supporting the potential that some of   
   these thunderstorms are more robust/organized. Given the low-level   
   stability, primary risk with the more organized storms is likely   
   hail, but some isolated gusts maybe be strong enough to penetrate   
   the low-level stability as well.   
      
   ...Pacific Northwest...   
   A strong shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward through   
   the Pacific Northwest today, followed closely by another   
   southeastward-progressing shortwave that moves into northern CA.   
   Cold mid-level temperatures will foster scant buoyancy, and the   
   frontal band associated with this lead wave will likely feature some   
   deeper convective elements capable of producing lightning.   
      
   ..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/07/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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