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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS03 KWNS 070831   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 070830   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0230 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026   
      
   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLAMISS   
   INTO PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday   
   from the lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Mid-South and   
   Southeast.   
      
   ...Lower MS Valley into parts of the Southeast and TN/OH   
   Valleys...   
   Within a deep mid/upper-level trough covering much of the   
   central/eastern CONUS, an initial ejecting shortwave is forecast to   
   move from the Great Lakes toward northern New England. Upstream of   
   this system, two shortwaves (one initially over the southern Rockies   
   and the other over the Canadian Prairies) will progress eastward and   
   potentially begin to phase, though some guidance spread remains   
   regarding the details. As this occurs, a surface low will develop   
   and gradually deepen as it moves from the southern Plains toward the   
   lower Ohio Valley.   
      
   Seasonably rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 60s F)   
   will already be in place within the warm sector of this developing   
   cyclone. A reservoir of moderate buoyancy is forecast to reside from   
   south/east TX into LA, with somewhat weaker buoyancy farther north   
   and east, where relatively widespread convection will result in   
   weaker lapse rates and muted diurnal heating. Deep-layer shear will   
   remain strong through the period, and a low-level jet is expected to   
   develop by late afternoon and intensify through the evening, in   
   response to the approaching shortwave trough and surface low.   
      
   Details regarding convective evolution remain uncertain, with   
   multiple rounds of convection possible across much of the warm   
   sector. Some severe threat could develop through the morning and   
   into the afternoon, with guidance suggesting an increasing threat   
   from late afternoon into Friday night, in association with   
   increasing large-scale ascent and the strengthening low-level jet.   
   The moist and strongly sheared environment will support potential   
   for supercells and organized clusters, with an attendant threat of   
   damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Some hail will also be possible,   
   especially within the southwest portion of the primary threat area,   
   where somewhat stronger buoyancy is expected to be in place.   
      
   ..Dean.. 01/07/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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