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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   240 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Wed Jan 07 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is   
   less than 5 percent.   
      
   Kleebauer   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is   
   less than 5 percent.   
      
   Kleebauer   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF   
   THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...   
      
   Large scale amplification of a trough over the Central Rockies into   
   the Central Plains will generate a broad axis of ascent from the=20   
   Mississippi Valley to points eastward with a cold frontal=20   
   progression slowly migrating east across the aforementioned areas.=20   
   Meridional component of the pattern evolution will benefit from the   
   strengthening mean trough with multiple shortwave ejections=20   
   rounding the trough base across the Lower Mississippi Valley,=20   
   advancing northeast through the Southeastern U.S. before migrating=20   
   into the Tennessee Valley by the end of the D3. Deep moisture plume   
   ahead of the trough will usher anomalous PWATs on the order of +2   
   to +4 sigma spanning east TX through much of the Southeast into=20   
   the Southern Ohio Valley. Ample shear and deep moist axis will   
   maintain a prevalent fixture for much of the period with flow   
   running close to, if not parallel to the frontal axis that will   
   bisect southwest to northeast across the Lower Mississippi Valley   
   through Central and Northern MS/AL into TN. Current ensemble trends   
   favor a rather broad axis of 2-3" precip totals just within the   
   means with the deterministic output pushing closer to 4-5" with the   
   maxima focused over central MS up through northern AL to south-   
   central TN. This aligns well with the pattern evolution progressing   
   the front into those confines with a multi-wave ejection riding   
   into the front as they eject out of the broad deep-layer   
   southwesterly flow situated across the region.=20   
      
   This setup is classic for a winter time flash flood prospect across   
   this area of the CONUS as broad ascent coupled with ample deep-   
   layer shear and highly anomalous moisture tends to amplify the   
   threat for heavy rainfall repeating over the same areas. This is   
   being forecast within the Southeast and far southern edge of the   
   Ohio Valley with the ensemble overlap generally in that corridor   
   from east-central MS to points north and east with a maxima   
   oriented over northern AL into southern TN. This is likely the area   
   to watch, however don't be surprised if areas south across the   
   southern half of MS into parts of LA see a greater heavy convective   
   signature that tends to crop up in the short range as the=20   
   instability maximum tends to verify a bit further south compared=20   
   to what global deterministic output has at this lead. For now,   
   maintained general continuity in the grand scheme, but adjusted the   
   SLGT and MRGL risks based on QPF trends and alignment with the   
   greatest potential for training, and elevated theta_E placement.=20   
      
   Kleebauer   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_Cc3pn5fLAEdigagMrDWZuY3VXDABFkL_wW8LpCaSmgn=   
   xwkRnLMaSPUDTRC-6onpFI4zhI34cU7e4Ldd3thMpXjNfME$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_Cc3pn5fLAEdigagMrDWZuY3VXDABFkL_wW8LpCaSmgn=   
   xwkRnLMaSPUDTRC-6onpFI4zhI34cU7e4Ldd3thMyZgm_Xc$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_Cc3pn5fLAEdigagMrDWZuY3VXDABFkL_wW8LpCaSmgn=   
   xwkRnLMaSPUDTRC-6onpFI4zhI34cU7e4Ldd3thMyYaNkPo$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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