TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168320.weather@1:2320/105 2dc5cc89   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS02 KWNS 070702   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 070700   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0100 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026   
      
   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE   
   SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from Oklahoma into   
   parts of the ArkLaTex and lower/mid Mississippi Valley.   
      
   ...Southern Plains into parts of the ArkLaTex and lower/mid MS   
   Valley...   
   A negative-tilt mid/upper-level shortwave trough and associated   
   surface low will move quickly northeastward from the southern High   
   Plains towards the Great Lakes on Thursday. This shortwave will   
   impinge upon increasing low-level moisture and MUCAPE of near/above   
   500 J/kg from late D1/Wednesday into early D2/Thursday morning,   
   resulting in thunderstorm development. Deep-layer shear will be   
   quite favorable, and the strongest morning storms may be capable of   
   producing localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail. The Marginal   
   Risk area has been expanded westward across OK and southern KS, with   
   recent guidance indicating a slightly slower shortwave timing. Most   
   guidance suggests morning convection may remain slightly elevated,   
   but low tornado probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence   
   increases in surface-based storm development from central OK into   
   southeast KS.   
      
   With time, the morning storms will encounter decreasing buoyancy,   
   but if organized convection can be sustained, then some threat for   
   localized damaging wind could spread toward the mid MS Valley and   
   possibly a larger portion of the Midwest and lower OH Valley, in   
   conjunction with the ejecting shortwave. The northeast extent of   
   severe potential remains uncertain, with the shortwave expected to   
   eventually outpace returning low-level moisture.   
      
   Farther south, severe potential becomes more conditional from parts   
   of the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South, with stronger ascent expected to   
   remain north of this region. While buoyancy will remain weak,   
   low-level and deep-layer shear will be strong. Guidance remains   
   inconsistent regarding the development of deep convection in this   
   region, with the ECMWF and RRFS being somewhat more aggressive,   
   while other guidance is generally more muted. If robust convection   
   can develop within this environment, then some threat for locally   
   damaging wind and possibly a tornado could evolve from late   
   afternoon into part of Thursday night.   
      
   ...Arizona...   
   Thunderstorm potential is expected to increase through the day   
   across parts of AZ, as a midlevel shortwave trough moves   
   east-southeastward across the region. Gusty winds and/or small hail   
   could occur with the strongest convection, though buoyancy is   
   currently expected to remain too meager for an organized severe   
   threat.   
      
   ..Dean.. 01/07/2026   
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 19/10 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302 128/187 129/14   
   SEEN-BY: 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50 110 700 218/700 840 220/10 20 30   
   SEEN-BY: 220/70 90 221/1 6 360 226/17 18 30 44 50 227/114 229/110   
   SEEN-BY: 229/134 206 275 300 307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 266/512   
   SEEN-BY: 267/800 291/111 301/1 320/219 322/757 335/364 341/66 342/200   
   SEEN-BY: 396/45 460/58 633/280 712/848 770/1 100 340 350 772/210 220   
   SEEN-BY: 772/230 902/26 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 218/840 770/1 633/280 229/426