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   MSGID: 168318.weather@1:2320/105 2dc5b8d5   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 070538   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 070536   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1136 PM CST Tue Jan 06 2026   
      
   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF   
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Marginally severe storms are possible from late tonight into the   
   early morning on Thursday from parts of west and northwest Texas   
   northeastward into Oklahoma.   
      
   ...West and Northwest Texas/Oklahoma...   
   A mid-level trough will move quickly east-northeastward from the   
   eastern Pacific this morning to the southern Plains tonight. Ahead   
   of the system, a lee surface trough will develop across the High   
   Plains, as winds become south to southeasterly over much of the   
   southern Plains. In response, moisture advection will increase over   
   the southern Plains, as a moist airmass spreads northwestward into   
   parts of west-central and north-central Texas by midnight. Along the   
   northwestern edge of this airmass, low-level convergence is forecast   
   to increase after midnight, which will aid scattered thunderstorm   
   development during the overnight period. Instability along a   
   southwest-to-northeast corridor is forecast to remain weak, with   
   MLCAPE peaking around 500 J/kg. In addition, a low-level capping   
   inversion just the east of the instability axis will keep much of   
   the convection elevated. In spite of these negative factors,   
   effective shear will be in the 40 to 50 knot range, and 700-500 mb   
   lapse rates are forecast to be between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This   
   environment could support a marginal severe threat with cells that   
   rotate. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible, mainly   
   in the 08Z to 12Z timeframe.   
      
   ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 01/07/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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