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   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   340 PM EST Tue Jan 6 2026   
      
   Valid 00Z Wed Jan 07 2026 - 00Z Sat Jan 10 2026   
      
      
   ...Northeast...   
   Day 1...   
      
   An amplifying shortwave along with a trailing shortwave over the   
   Upper Midwest this evening will move steadily eastward into/through   
   the Northeast overnight and early tomorrow morning. As a modest   
   jet streak moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast this evening, broad   
   lift on the poleward side of the jet will help promote an expanding   
   area of precipitation across the region atop a marginal to cold   
   environment. At the surface, the dueling mid-level shortwaves will   
   help take a lead surface low over western NY (BUF to ART)   
   overnight and a newly developing surface low near southeast Mass by   
   12Z Wed that will lift toward Nova Scotia through the afternoon.   
   Given the marginal temperatures at precip onset over at least some   
   of the interior and WAA aloft, a mix of freezing rain and some   
   sleet to the south and mostly snow to the north (along the Canadian   
   border) is likely as the decaying lead low allows a northerly   
   fetch to continue to bring in some colder air to northern   
   locations. The system will exit the region by tomorrow evening   
   given the progressive flow.   
      
   For areas that receive mostly snow (the higher elevations of the   
   Adirondacks and northern New England), WPC probabilities for at   
   least 4 inches of snow are modest at 10-40% with most areas likely   
   seeing 2-3 inches of snow. Along and south of I-90, a mix of mostly   
   freezing rain but some sleet is likely. WPC probabilities of at   
   least 0.10" icing are highest (>50%) in MA along/north of I-90 and   
   along Route 2, as well as into the southern Green Mountains in VT   
   and into southern NH. Localized amounts near 0.25" are possible.   
      
      
   ...Olympics, Cascades, Great Basin, and Northern/Central Rockies...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   The strong jet across the North Pacific will dip into the Pac NW   
   and weaken, but still bring a modest influx of moisture to the   
   region via several embedded shortwaves. Lead system enters tonight   
   via a 120kt jet streak with snow to the Cascades and northern   
   Rockies that will sink southward as the jet digs and dips through   
   the Great Basin. Snow levels initially around 3000-4000ft will   
   lower overnight to below 2000ft (WA and eastward) and 3000ft (OR to   
   ID) by tomorrow morning, with another surge in moisture thereafter   
   as the second shortwave moves in from the Pacific. Snow levels   
   will continue to lower to as low as 750-1000ft by early Thursday as   
   precipitation lightens and is increasingly favored in the terrain.   
   However, this will bring impactful snow to the passes and at least   
   some light snow to some higher lowland areas around 1000ft.   
   Precipitation should end in the PacNW by Friday afternoon. WPC   
   probabilities are >50% for at least 8 inches of snow above   
   1000-2000ft through the WA/OR Cascades and for at least 18 inches   
   of snow above 2000-3000ft. Total snow for the highest peaks may   
   eclipse 3-4ft.   
      
   From the northern Rockies southward to the Wasatch and WY ranges,   
   moisture associated with the Pacific intrusion will still be modest   
   but sufficient enough to capitalize on upslope enhancement into   
   the terrain, especially over Idaho and northwestern MT D1 then   
   through western WY and eventually the Wasatch as the moisture and   
   trough sink southward and eastward. WPC probabilities for at least   
   12 inches of snow are >50% above 4000-5000ft (north), 7000ft (WY),   
   and 7000-8000ft (Wasatch).   
      
      
   ...Four Corners States...   
   Days 2-3...   
      
   A vigorous shortwave digging southeast from the Pacific Northwest   
   will amplify rapidly as it approaches the Four Corners states   
   (potentially closing off over the high plains of southeast CO and   
   northeast NM or vicinity) Thursday into Friday, before ejecting   
   eastward into the central Plains Friday night into Saturday. As   
   this occurs, a strengthening 120kt+ 250mb jet overspreading the   
   southern and central Plains will begin to arc poleward, placing the   
   left exit region in the vicinity of the central and southern   
   Rockies. The overlap of left exit region diffluence with mid-level   
   height falls will likely lead to lee side cyclogenesis Thursday   
   evening, within a column that, while will feature generally normal   
   to below normal PWs, will saturate in response to increasing low-   
   level easterly flow around the strengthening surface low. With   
   steep lapse rates aloft helping to cool the column, and flow   
   becoming increasingly favorable to upslope into the terrain,   
   confidence is increasing for a more significant snow event for much   
   of the central and southern Rockies into the High Plains of CO/NM,   
   including the I-25 corridor (particularly from Denver to Colorado   
   Springs) which has experienced a relative dearth of snowfall so far   
   this season.   
      
   While adjustments in the forecast are likely (and the latest   
   trends suggest those adjustments are likely to be upward), current   
   WPC snow probabilities now indicate a high risk (>70% chance) for   
   storm total accumulations of 8+ inches of snow across much of the   
   CO Rockies (including the Front Range), portions of the Wasatch,   
   and southward into the higher elevations of northeast AZ and   
   northwest NM. The lower elevations of I-25 and into the High Plains   
   now have a 30-60% chance of 4+ inches, although locally higher   
   amounts, potentially in excess of 8 inches, are also possible   
   across western portions of the Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa.   
      
      
   Fracasso/Miller/Weiss   
      
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
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