TZUTC: 0000   
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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS03 KWNS 061927   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 061926   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0126 PM CST Tue Jan 06 2026   
      
   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN   
   OK/TX INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from eastern Texas   
   and Oklahoma into parts of the Ozarks and lower/mid Mississippi   
   Valley.   
      
   ...Eastern TX/OK into the Lower/Mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley...   
      
   Guidance has come into relatively better agreement with the timing   
   and overall evolution of a compact midlevel impulse and accompanying   
   surface low ejecting northeastward from the southern Plains toward   
   the Great Lakes through the period. This will result in the   
   development of an expansive warm sector characterized by partially   
   modified Gulf moisture and somewhat cool surface temperatures. Given   
   poor/modest lapse rates, buoyancy will remain fairly limited --   
   especially with northward extent. Nevertheless, strong deep-layer   
   flow/shear will overspread the warm sector, resulting in an   
   expansive area of conditional severe potential.   
      
   Widely scattered elevated thunderstorms with a risk of marginally   
   severe hail and locally damaging gusts will be spreading   
   east-northeastward from the southern Plains into the lower/middle MS   
   Valley at the start of the period. There will be some potential for   
   this activity to become surface-based and intensify as it tracks   
   east-northeastward though the afternoon, though this will be largely   
   dependent on the degree of surface heating in the warm sector. If   
   storms can root at the surface, a mesoscale corridor of higher   
   severe potential will be possible -- posing a risk of severe wind   
   gusts and perhaps a tornado.   
      
   Thunderstorms will generally spread northeastward toward the lower   
   OH Valley in tandem with the surface low through the day, and severe   
   potential becomes more uncertain with northward extent (given the   
   low CAPE/high shear parameter space). A small northward expansion of   
   severe probabilities was made where near-surface-based storms will   
   be possible amid strengthening low-level flow/shear, and depending   
   on destabilization, further expansions will be possible.   
      
   ..Weinman.. 01/06/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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