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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS02 KWNS 061717   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 061716   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1116 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026   
      
   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF   
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Strong to locally severe storms are possible Wednesday night into   
   Thursday morning from west-central Texas into parts of Oklahoma.   
      
   ...Southern Plains...   
   A low-latitude shortwave trough will advance east-northeastward   
   across the Southwest through the day, reaching the southern High   
   Plains late in the period. Related lee cyclogenesis will favor a   
   strengthening nocturnal low-level jet and the northward return of   
   weakly modified Gulf moisture into a cool/statically stable boundary   
   layer over the southern Plains overnight. This, combined with   
   modestly steepened midlevel lapse rates preceding the trough, will   
   yield around 500 J/kg MUCAPE across the developing warm sector.   
      
   A band of warm-advection-driven showers and widely scattered   
   thunderstorms will develop from west-central TX into OK during the   
   06-12Z time frame. Despite limited buoyancy, 50-60 kt of effective   
   shear may promote a couple loosely organized cells and small line   
   segments, though most of this activity is expected to remain   
   slightly elevated. Marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts   
   will be possible with the more organized storms that evolve.   
      
   ...Pacific Northwest...   
   In the left-exit region of a robust midlevel jet impinging on the   
   Pacific Northwest Coast, a strongly forced, low-topped convective   
   band is expected along a cold front overspreading the region. While   
   locally strong gusts will be possible, the combination of weak   
   buoyancy and lack of stronger low-level flow limits confidence in   
   severe-gust potential.   
      
   ..Weinman.. 01/06/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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