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   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0400 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026   
      
   Valid 091200Z - 141200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   ...D4/Friday: Lower MS Valley vicinity...   
   A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over the southern   
   Rockies is forecast to take on a positive tilt as it moves eastward   
   on Friday, as a northern-stream shortwave trough digs from the   
   Canadian Prairies toward the Upper Great Lakes. Some guidance has   
   trended weaker and farther south with a surface low developing near   
   the lower MS Valley by Friday evening, though a relatively large   
   warm sector is still expected to be in place through most of the   
   period. Scattered to widespread storm development is expected from   
   parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley, with sufficient   
   deep-layer shear for organized convection and some attendant severe   
   threat. Some adjustments to the 15% area have been made, based on   
   guidance trends regarding surface low placement and the northward   
   extent of the favorable warm sector.   
      
   ...D5/Saturday: Parts of the East...   
   Uncertainty regarding the synoptic pattern increases by D5/Saturday,   
   with varying solutions regarding the extent of mid/upper-level   
   trough amplification across the eastern CONUS, and the strength of   
   the related surface low. Guidance generally agrees that buoyancy   
   will be limited across much of the warm sector on Saturday. However,   
   any organized convection that develops Friday night may persist into   
   Saturday morning across parts of the Southeast, with some potential   
   for an isolated severe threat. Farther north, the strongest   
   solutions (such as the 00Z deterministic ECMWF) depict notable   
   intensification of low/midlevel flow from the Ohio Valley into the   
   Mid Atlantic, which could result in some damaging-wind potential   
   with any low-topped convection along or ahead of an advancing cold   
   front.   
      
   ..Dean.. 01/06/2026   
      
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