TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168297.weather@1:2320/105 2dc48efb   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS03 KWNS 060827   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 060826   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0226 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026   
      
   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN   
   OK/TX INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from eastern Texas   
   and Oklahoma into parts of the Ozarks and lower/mid Mississippi   
   Valley.   
      
   ...Eastern TX/OK into the Lower/Mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley...   
      
   Guidance still varies somewhat regarding the timing and strength of   
   the primary synoptic features across the CONUS on Thursday. In   
   general, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to eject   
   quickly northeastward from the southern Plains towards the Great   
   Lakes on Thursday, as an upstream shortwave trough moves from the   
   Southwest toward the southern Rockies. In conjunction with the lead   
   shortwave trough, a surface low is forecast to move from the   
   south-central Plains northeastward toward the lower Great Lakes by   
   the end of the period.   
      
   Elevated convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across   
   parts of OK/KS into the Ozarks, in association with the ejecting   
   shortwave. Despite the meager instability, some organized convection   
   may be ongoing Thursday morning, given the strength of the forcing   
   and deep-layer flow/shear. Gusty and locally damaging winds could   
   accompany any organized line segments as they approach parts of the   
   OH Valley, though lingering low-level stability will tend to limit   
   the magnitude of the threat, especially with northeast extent.   
      
   In the wake of the ejecting shortwave and early-day convection, a   
   relatively large and strongly sheared warm sector will extend from   
   the Gulf Coast into the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley.   
   However, with generally poor lapse rates, weak to modest buoyancy,   
   and a tendency for the strongest ascent to lift away from the warm   
   sector with time, organized-severe potential during the afternoon   
   and evening is uncertain.   
      
   There is a modest signal in ECMWF/GFS and related ensemble guidance   
   for storm development Thursday evening/night from near the ArkLaTex   
   into the lower OH Valley, with the deterministic ECMWF also   
   depicting robust elevated convection into parts of central TX late   
   in the period. If storms can mature within the favorably sheared   
   environment, then some threat for locally damaging wind, isolated   
   hail, and/or a tornado could evolve later in the period. A rather   
   conditional Marginal Risk has been included where ensemble and   
   calibrated guidance depicts at least a low-probability severe threat   
   through the period.   
      
   ..Dean.. 01/06/2026   
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 19/10 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302 128/187 129/14   
   SEEN-BY: 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50 110 700 218/700 840 220/10 20 30   
   SEEN-BY: 220/70 90 221/1 6 360 226/17 18 30 44 50 227/114 229/110   
   SEEN-BY: 229/134 206 275 300 307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 266/512   
   SEEN-BY: 267/800 291/111 301/1 320/219 322/757 335/364 341/66 342/200   
   SEEN-BY: 396/45 460/58 633/280 712/848 770/1 100 340 350 772/210 220   
   SEEN-BY: 772/230 902/26 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 218/840 770/1 633/280 229/426