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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   218 AM EST Tue Jan 6 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Tue Jan 06 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 07 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is   
   less than 5 percent.   
      
   Kleebauer   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Wed Jan 07 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is   
   less than 5 percent.   
      
   Kleebauer   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN   
   ILLINOIS...   
      
   Surface low over the Southern Plains will spawn and move northeast   
   through the period with an established meridional flow projected to   
   usher elevated moisture poleward, even as far north as the Great   
   Lakes. Instability will be limited, but non-zero across the Mississippi   
   Valley with relatively modest MUCAPE on the eastern periphery of   
   the cyclone. PWAT anomalies approaching record territory would   
   normally spur greater emphasis on heavy precipitation, but the   
   relative nature of the PWAT anomaly being in January stunts the   
   maximum potential limiting more widespread nature of flash flood   
   prospects.=20   
      
   That said, north of I-70, grounds are mostly frozen from the long   
   stretch of sub-freezing temperatures maintaining a lower prospect   
   for rainfall absorption and a higher propensity for run off. Areas   
   along and north of I-80 across northern IL has the deeper sub-soil   
   layers frozen with grounds likely to encounter majority run off   
   during the period as moderate to locally heavy rainfall spreads   
   north. In collaboration with the local Chicago WFO, a small MRGL   
   was maintained across northern IL to account for the local flooding   
   threat given the parameters of elevated PWATs and higher risk for   
   run off. Urbanization in this area is also very prevalent, so heavy   
   rains could even spur some flooding risks due to poor drainage in   
   spots.=20   
      
   Kleebauer   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9yiR8ngfPN6aKXHqr3tVACHQx3QRZacD3hWyKi-iGW5U=   
   _zHeBXy5yiHbDXqriyrlYCGKWQX5UMJ72Hem2Lq9s55t_q0$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9yiR8ngfPN6aKXHqr3tVACHQx3QRZacD3hWyKi-iGW5U=   
   _zHeBXy5yiHbDXqriyrlYCGKWQX5UMJ72Hem2Lq9ztBzX1c$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9yiR8ngfPN6aKXHqr3tVACHQx3QRZacD3hWyKi-iGW5U=   
   _zHeBXy5yiHbDXqriyrlYCGKWQX5UMJ72Hem2Lq9vKWxFKc$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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