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   ACUS02 KWNS 060658   
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   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1256 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026   
      
   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF   
   WEST AND NORTH TX INTO OK...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Strong to locally severe storms are possible Wednesday night from   
   west-central Texas into parts of Oklahoma.   
      
   ...Southern Plains...   
   A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially near Baja California is   
   forecast to eject east-northeastward and take on a negative tilt as   
   it approaches the Southern Plains Wednesday night. Previously slower   
   guidance (such as the EC-AIFS and GFS) has trended toward a somewhat   
   faster solution with this system. A surface low is forecast to   
   deepen over the south-central High Plains during the evening.   
   Low-level moisture will spread northward, with 60s F dewpoints   
   potentially reaching the Red River region prior to the end of the   
   period.   
      
   As ascent attendant to the shortwave trough impinges upon the   
   increasing low-level moisture, thunderstorm development is expected   
   Wednesday night across parts of west/north TX into OK, which may   
   spread toward the Ozark Plateau prior to 12Z Thursday.   
   Initial MUCAPE of near/above 500 J/kg and increasing deep-layer   
   shear could support some storm organization.   
      
   There may be a brief window for near-surface-based development   
   near/after 03Z across parts of west-central TX, but the bulk of   
   convection will likely be somewhat elevated. The buoyancy profile   
   will be hampered by poor mid/upper-level lapse rates, and lingering   
   near-surface stability will likely persist across most of the warm   
   sector, resulting in uncertainty regarding severe potential with any   
   organized cells/clusters. However, given the expectation for   
   strongly forced convection Wednesday night within a favorably   
   sheared environment, a Marginal Risk has been introduced. Isolated   
   strong/damaging gusts will be possible, and hail cannot be ruled out   
   with initial development, before buoyancy becomes increasingly   
   depleted with time. Given the strength of low-level shear/SRH, the   
   potential for near-surface-based development will continue to be   
   monitored regarding any tornado threat.   
      
   ...Pacific Northwest coast...   
   Low-topped convection with sporadic lightning flashes will be   
   possible through at least the morning and afternoon near the Pacific   
   Northwest coast, as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves across   
   the region. Cold temperatures aloft (less than -30C at 500 mb) will   
   support meager buoyancy (with MUCAPE generally 100-200 J/kg),   
   primarily near and in the wake of a cold front. Relatively strong   
   low-level flow could support gusty winds with this convection,   
   though the very weak buoyancy is expected to limit organized severe   
   potential.   
      
   ..Dean.. 01/06/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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