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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 060501   
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   SPC AC 060500   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1100 PM CST Mon Jan 05 2026   
      
   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z   
      
   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. appear less than 10   
   percent today through tonight.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Thermodynamic profiles across the U.S. remain generally stable, or   
   at least not appreciably conducive to convective development capable   
   of producing lightning, and models indicate little potential for   
   change today through tonight. Limited ongoing moisture return, off a   
   still slowly modifying Gulf boundary-layer, appears likely to become   
   cut off, as low-level flow takes on an increasing westerly component   
   to the south and southwest of a modest cyclone forecast to migrate   
   across the southern Great Lakes region.  Increasing large-scale   
   ascent, associated with secondary cyclogenesis near/offshore of the   
   northern Mid Atlantic through southern New England coast by late   
   tonight, may be accompanied by a substantive increase in   
   thunderstorm development, but mostly ahead of the trailing cold   
   front, near/east of the Gulf Stream.   
      
   Upstream, models indicate that mid/upper flow will undergo   
   amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into   
   western North America.  It appears that this may include at least   
   one vigorous short wave impulse digging toward the Pacific   
   Northwest, accompanied by a potentially notable convective band with   
   embedded thunderstorm activity, but probably not quite reaching the   
   coastal waters prior to 12Z Wednesday.   
      
   Farther south, within larger-scale troughing digging across the   
   southern mid- to subtropical latitude eastern Pacific, a relatively   
   compact cyclonic mid-level circulation may evolve, with an   
   associated cold core that could support a developing area of   
   thunderstorm activity.  However, before undergoing an   
   east-northeastward acceleration toward northern Baja and the   
   Southwestern international border vicinity, it appears that this   
   will remain offshore through 12Z Wednesday.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 01/06/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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