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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion...CORRECTED   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   311 PM EST Mon Jan 5 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Mon Jan 05 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 06 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL   
   TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   ...16Z update...   
      
   The forecast reasoning in the previous discussion remains valid and   
   only minor adjustments were made to the existing Marginal Risk   
   across north-central California. The primary shortwave embedded   
   within the longwave trough in the eastern Pacific was centered near   
   128W and will advance closer to the north-central California coast   
   between Point Arena and San Francisco Bay through 00Z. After 00Z,   
   the closed mid-level low will elongate and weaken as it moves   
   southward offshore of the coast. There is good model agreement in   
   this forecast and the corresponding low level wind field becoming   
   largely parallel to the central California coast overnight while   
   weakening.   
      
   The main concern for heavy rain related impacts will be prior to   
   03Z Tuesday where isolated hourly rainfall of 0.50 to 0.75 inches   
   primarily focused along the Coastal Ranges toward the San Francisco   
   Bay region later today with isolated hourly totals near 1 inch   
   possible. East of the Coastal Ranges, peak hourly rainfall up to   
   ~0.50 inches is expected. Additional peak rainfall through 12Z   
   Tuesday will be in the 2-4 inch range   
      
   Otto   
      
   ...previous discussion follows...   
      
      
   Upper disturbance off the California coast will meander to the   
   southeast closer to the coastal plain, eventually pinching off the   
   mean trough centered to the north and closing off into an ULL as it   
   migrates down near the latitude of the Bay area. Proximity of the   
   disturbance and prevailing flow will send a modest IVT pulse   
   (300-400 kg/ms) crashing into the northern CA coastal plain with   
   some minor protrusion of the IVT signature inland with a secondary   
   QPF maxima forecast around the Trinity Mountains over into Shasta   
   National Forest domain. Hi-res deterministic output is pretty   
   consistent with the axis of heaviest precip focused from the King   
   Range down towards Santa Rosa, north of the Bay area with the   
   latest HREF EAS probs for 1" running between 60-90% for much of   
   that location with another prob max focused near Mount Shasta.   
      
   The main threat for this setup is easily over any urbanized zones   
   and remnant burn scars across northern CA leading to mainly a   
   lower-end flash flood concern in the grand scheme of the setup. IVT   
   signature is one that historically yields more isolated flash flood   
   threats with the primary focus typically aimed at that coastal   
   urban centered from the Bay area up towards Eureka, and over the   
   northern valley locations like Redding. This is where the MRGL   
   risk was maintained during the forecast as the trend for the   
   southern edge of any heavy rain prospects south of San Jose has all   
   but disappeared on guidance. It's still something we'll monitor   
   for any last minute trends back, but guidance favors mainly the   
   area north of the Bay at this time. Total QPF for the impacted   
   areas will be between 1.5-3" with a max between 4-5" for the   
   coastal ranges north of the Bay area, and over the Shasta National   
   Forest.   
      
   Kleebauer   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Tue Jan 06 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 07 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is=20   
   less than 5 percent.   
      
   Fracasso   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Wed Jan 07 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is=20   
   less than 5 percent.   
      
   Fracasso   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6iQ4L-UbvWDSw4dGlZLIfuz2wLaBHsz6i675pOOl0HeF=   
   nq7UiRCdn2XTQTHlvTZRPJiEnuuUJnUpGJUOw-ddO03kBpQ$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6iQ4L-UbvWDSw4dGlZLIfuz2wLaBHsz6i675pOOl0HeF=   
   nq7UiRCdn2XTQTHlvTZRPJiEnuuUJnUpGJUOw-dduFdKZ8M$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6iQ4L-UbvWDSw4dGlZLIfuz2wLaBHsz6i675pOOl0HeF=   
   nq7UiRCdn2XTQTHlvTZRPJiEnuuUJnUpGJUOw-dd2gUpZv8$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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