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   CAZ000-060400-   
      
   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0006   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   156 PM EST Mon Jan 05 2026   
      
   Areas affected...north-central CA   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 051854Z - 060400Z   
      
   SUMMARY...Isolated flood/flash flood impacts will be possible   
   across portions of central to northern CA through the late   
   evening. Peak hourly rainfall of 0.50 to 0.75 inches and peak   
   additional total rainfall of 2 to 3 inches (locally higher   
   possible) can be expected through 06Z.   
      
   DISCUSSION...GOES West 6.9 micron imagery showed a mid-level   
   vorticity max/closed low centered near 36.6N 127.0W at 18Z,   
   embedded within a larger scale trough axis off of the West Coast.   
   At the surface, low pressure was located ~70 miles northwest of   
   Point Arena, with a cold front extending south and southwest. Over   
   the past few hours bands of moderate to heavy rain have been   
   observed moving across the northern CA Coastal Ranges with current   
   radar imagery showing an axis of locally heavy rain oriented SSW   
   to NNE into the North Bay region of San Francisco. In addition,   
   infrared imagery showed a band of colder cloud tops just ahead of   
   the cold front where weak MLCAPE values up to ~250 J/kg were   
   estimated by short term RAP forecasts and SPC mesoanalysis data.   
      
   850-700 mb winds were from the southwest at 30 to 40 kt ahead of   
   the offshore trough axis into north-central CA with PWAT values   
   ranging from 0.6 inches within the northern Sacramento Valley to   
   about 0.9 inches just west of San Francisco Bay. Short term   
   guidance is in good agreement with the track of the mid-level   
   vorticity max/closed low slowly advancing toward the CA coast   
   between Point Arena and San Francisco through about 03Z at which   
   point stalling and eventual southward translation are forecast.   
   The effect of these larger scale features will translate at the   
   surface to a SSW to NNE band of heavy rain advancing eastward   
   toward the central CA coast with embedded peak hourly rainfall   
   between 0.5 and 0.75 inches (locally higher possible) through the   
   afternoon and evening. Hourly rainfall up to about 0.5 inches in   
   an hour will be likely for the northern Sacramento Valley where   
   weak MLCAPE values up to 250 J/kg area forecast by the RAP from   
   about 00Z-04Z.   
      
   Recent heavy rainfall has left this region of CA more susceptible   
   to heavy rainfall compared to normal, and there will be the   
   typical enhancement of heavy rain impacts in and around the San   
   Francisco Bay region to contend with. Within areas of higher   
   terrain, localized landslides/rockslides will be possible and   
   flooding of creeks, streams, urban areas and other   
   low-lying/flood-prone locations will remain possible through about   
   04Z. Beyond 04Z, low level winds are likely to weaken and orient   
   more parallel to the coastline, diminishing the potential for   
   flooding impacts across the region.   
      
   Otto   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!5yfdRhNsr5-w98AcBLIkgKfg5dwl82xgBx00_2ai_nPnbtaLIKpLyJFPncQgplhC3Gld=   
   GFEcRSBOU4e1ZIqU2XZx8Rg$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...EKA...MTR...STO...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   41122240 41062196 40692174 40362164 39812141=20   
               39542172 38992204 38132212 37402214 36942223=20   
               36952281 37572330 38122362 38962364 39842330=20   
               40422311 40932275=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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