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   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 051258   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 051256   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0656 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026   
      
   Valid 051300Z - 061200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   The risk for thunderstorms will remain minimal across the U.S. today   
   through tonight.   
      
   ...Synopsis and Discussion...   
   Largely zonal mid-level flow currently extends across the CONUS,   
   although upper troughing is just off the West Coast. Complex   
   evolution is anticipated with this upper troughing throughout the   
   period as a more progressive shortwave trough moves within its   
   northern periphery and a shortwave within its southern periphery dig   
   south/southeast. This will result in a bifurcation of the upper   
   troughing, with the southern shortwave evolving into a cyclone off   
   the central/southern CA coast. This evolution will result in   
   persistent large-scale forcing for ascent, and associated mid-level   
   cooling, along the northern/central CA Coast. Resulting   
   thermodynamic profiles could support isolated lightning flashes with   
   any deeper, more persistent convection. This appears most likely   
   from this morning through the early afternoon.   
      
   Additionally, a lead shortwave trough is ejecting across the Four   
   Corners and expected to move through the central Plains and Mid MS   
   Valley. Modest buoyancy is anticipated ahead of this trough across   
   UT, southwest WY, and northwest CO, which could result in a few   
   lightning flashes within any deeper convection associated with this   
   wave. Low-level southwesterly flow will increase ahead of this wave   
   as it moves across central Plains and into the Mid MS Valley.   
   Associated warm-air advection coupled with cooling mid-level   
   temperatures could result in enough elevated buoyancy for weak   
   convection capable of producing lightning from southern MN across   
   northern IA/southwest WI into northern IL. However, probabilities   
   for this still appear below the minimum 10 percent threshold for a   
   categorical thunder area.   
      
   ..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/05/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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