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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS48 KWNS 050951   
   SWOD48   
   SPC AC 050949   
      
   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0349 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026   
      
   Valid 081200Z - 131200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   The noticeable model differences on D3/Wednesday in the evolution of   
   a low-latitude shortwave impulse, ejecting ahead of an amplifying   
   upper trough over the West, persist into D4/Thursday. This renders   
   low confidence in a greater than low-probability severe risk on   
   Thursday, which appears roughly centered on the Ark-La-Tex to   
   Mid-South.   
      
   Peak severe potential still appears centered on D5/Friday.   
   Predictability remains sub-optimal with the basal portion of the   
   amplified upper trough from the Southwest. This renders large spread   
   across guidance in timing and amplitude of downstream cyclogenesis   
   from the south-central Great Plains towards the Great Lakes,   
   impacting the breadth of severe potential. However, with preceding   
   days of airmass modification from the western Gulf, a pronounced   
   wintertime warm-moist sector should become established towards the   
   Lower OH Valley vicinity. This should be coincident with a broad   
   swath of strong southwesterly mid-level flow that should be   
   strengthening during the period.   
      
   The trio of latest NCAR ECENS-based and SPC-CSU GEFS-based ML   
   probabilities have trended upward again with similarly large 15   
   percent regions. Meanwhile, the NSSL GEFS-based V1.2 has increased   
   back to a 10 percent, but displaced farther south. For this   
   forecast, have opted to include a 15 percent highlight, centered on   
   the Lower MS to Lower OH Valleys where confidence is greater for a   
   favorable convective environment on Friday afternoon to night   
   despite the modest synoptic-scale predictability.   
      
   ML probs for D6/Saturday remain low, with only the NCAR_Pangu   
   highlighting a 5 percent area. But given the aforementioned timing   
   differences with the evolution of the upper trough/surface   
   cyclogenesis, very fast deep-layer wind fields could persist atop a   
   more limited thermodynamic environment. A conditional convective   
   damaging wind threat seems apparent, with low confidence on spatial   
   extent/amplitude at this time range.   
      
   ..Grams.. 01/05/2026   
      
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