TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168267.weather@1:2320/105 2dc335f8   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS03 KWNS 050756   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 050755   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0155 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026   
      
   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   General thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific   
   Northwest on Wednesday and across parts of the southern Great Plains   
   to the Ozark Plateau Wednesday night.   
      
   ...Coastal WA/OR...   
   A shortwave trough should reach the coastal Pacific Northwest by   
   midday/early afternoon Wednesday, before amplifying inland into the   
   Great Basin by 12Z Thursday. Cold mid-level temperatures of -30 to   
   -35 C at 500 mb in conjunction with onshore low-level flow should   
   yield scant surface-based buoyancy along the immediate coast by late   
   morning. Sporadic lightning flashes are possible through the   
   afternoon amid widely scattered low-topped convection near and in   
   the wake of trough passage.   
      
   ...West TX to the Ozarks...   
   In response to the aforementioned amplifying upper trough, a   
   low-latitude shortwave trough will accelerate east-northeast from   
   west of Baja CA. How far downstream this trough reaches by 12Z   
   Thursday remains uncertain. The 00Z EC-AIFS has been quite   
   consistent with a slower ejection and appears more reasonable given   
   typical guidance biases. It is an outlier along with the 00Z GFS in   
   holding the trough over northwest Mexico, while the majority of   
   guidance has it ejecting onto the southern High Plains. This will   
   impact the initial amplitude of cyclogenesis over the OK/northern TX   
   Panhandles vicinity through Wednesday night.   
      
   Modified low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will   
   initially be modest beneath an elevated mixed layer. Forecast   
   soundings also suggest weak lapse rates with nearly saturated   
   upper-level profiles well downstream of the low-latitude trough. As   
   such, elevated buoyancy should increase but remain weak. Guidance   
   also has pronounced differences in the degree of convective   
   development prior to 12Z Thursday, likely related to the degree of   
   preceding MUCIN and timing of strengthening large-scale ascent.   
   Opted to broadly aligned with the low 03Z SREF calibrated   
   thunderstorm probabilities pending potentially greater guidance   
   consistency in later outlooks.   
      
   ..Grams.. 01/05/2026   
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 120 16/0 18/0 19/10 37 105/81 106/201 116/116 123/0   
   SEEN-BY: 123/25 126 130 180 755 3001 3002 4040 128/187 129/14 134/100   
   SEEN-BY: 135/115 142/104 153/143 148 149 151 757 7715 154/10 110 201/0   
   SEEN-BY: 203/0 218/700 840 221/1 6 360 222/2 226/30 227/114 229/110   
   SEEN-BY: 229/134 206 275 300 307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 240/5832   
   SEEN-BY: 250/1 266/512 275/1000 280/5003 291/111 301/1 320/119 219   
   SEEN-BY: 320/319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364 341/66 342/200 396/45   
   SEEN-BY: 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 1321 902/26 2320/0 105 304   
   SEEN-BY: 3634/0 12 27 57 58 60 61 119 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 3634/12 153/757 221/6 1 320/219 229/426